Brentford vs. Chelsea Betting Prediction, Preview: An Absolutely Awful Spot for Chelsea

Brentford vs. Chelsea Odds

Chelsea make the short trip to Brentford for a West London Derby under the lights on Wednesday.

Brentford are currently sitting in the top half of the table after a fantastic start to their second season in the Premier League. They are coming off a 2-0 win over Brighton last Friday at the Brentford Community Stadium, where they've been incredibly difficult to beat over the past two years, especially for the Big Six.

Chelsea are flying high under new manager Graham Potter, winning their last five matches and have only allowed one goal in the process. After a rough start to the season, the Blues look like they are firmly going to finish inside the top four again, but this match is about as bad of a spot as it can get for a Big Six club heading to play the giant killers on their home turf.

Brentford's Explosive Offense Should Pressure Chelsea

Brentford got a result that they maybe didn’t deserve against Brighton on Friday, but it proves once again that the Bees are incredibly difficult to play at the Brentford Community Stadium.

Manchester United and Arsenal have gone there this season. United got pummeled 4-0, and Arsenal won 3-0 but only won the xG battle 1.0 to 0.50. Since their promotion, in eight home matches versus the Big Six, the Bees have a +0.9 xGD, and the only matches they’ve actually lost the expected goals battle were to Liverpool and Manchester City last season and Arsenal this season. 

The Bees have been incredibly efficient offensively this season and are creating high quality chances for fun. The Bees have created 14 big scoring chances this season, which is the fifth most in the Premier League. If Chelsea do have a weakness on defense, it's giving up big scoring chances, because they've already conceded 11 in nine matches, which is 12th in the Premier League.

Chelsea's Results Could Be Obscuring Reason for Concern

When Chelsea went to play Brentford on the road last season, they won the match 1-0, but Brentford completely dominated the chance creation aspect of the match, beating them 2.16 to 0.31 on xG, outshooting Chelsea 17 to 5, and had 43 touches in Chelsea’s penalty area.

What is interesting is the timing of that match; because it was out of an international break, the previous match Chelsea had put up 3.6 xG against Southampton and then after the Brentford match, they averaged over two expected goals in the preceding 13 matches. So, it was truly an unbelievable performance from Brentford. 

image via infogol.net

Chelsea really weren’t that good against Aston Villa on Sunday, as Villa created 2.31 xG, had an xThreat of 1.83, and had a field tilt of 64%. The bigger thing is they did it without pressing — they only had three high turnovers and PPDA of 11, but still were able to get 12 deep completions and 13 penalty box shots. If you are looking for a team that can execute a similar game plan, but be more effective, well, Brentford is your team. 

Also, Thomas Frank, in his two meetings against Graham Potter last season, held Brighton to just 1.1 xG, no big scoring chances, and just six shots from inside the penalty area.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is about as bad of a spot as it gets for Chelsea. It's their third road match in seven days, sixth match already in the month of October, and Brentford have a two days rest advantage.

Not to mention, Chelsea are going to be without Wesley Fofana, Reece James, N'Golo Kante, and potentially Thiago Silva for this match. Most importantly, they are in a look ahead spot with Manchester United on deck this weekend.

I only have the Blues projected at +125, so I love the value on Brentford +0.5 at +115 (BetRivers).

The Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+115)