Bundesliga Betting Preview: Frankfurt vs. Monchengladbach Odds, Picks and Prediction (Saturday, May 16)

Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Monchengladbach 

• Frankfurt Odds: +185
• Gladbach Odds: +140
• Draw: +240
• Over/Under: 3 (+123/-152)
• Time: Saturday, May 16 at 12:30pm ET
• TV: FS1

Borussia Monchengladbach will try and keep a hold of a Champions League spot with a trip to Frankfurt on Saturday.

Gladbach has enjoyed an amazing campaign so far this season, accumulating 49 points and they currently sit in fourth-place, which is high as they've been in the table since 2015.

Frankfurt, on the other hand, has taken a major step back this season. Die Adler are currently in 12th place, with only 28 points from 24 matches.

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Frankfurt

Last season, Frankfurt was on the doorstep of a top-four finish and a Europa League title, but ended up falling just short. They were lead by Luka Jovic who bagged 27 goals as a 20-year-old. Jovic was sold to Real Madrid at the beginning of this season and fellow striker Sebastien Haller moved to West Ham.

Most of Frankfurt's struggles this season has come on the road as they've only taken seven out of a possible 36 points away from home.

Frankfurt has been very good at Commerzbank-Arena, accumulating 21 points in 12 games. In fact, Frankfurt has already defeated Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Bayer Leverkusen at home this season.

Frankfurt matches usually see plenty of action and 75% of their games this season have featured at least three goals. That is pretty much inline with their expected goals, as Frankfurt boasts an average of 1.70 xGF per match and an xGA of 1.40.

One thing that is important to note is that Frankfurt currently has a -3 goal differential and a +5.3 xG differential, so they are a much better team than their results make them out to be.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Gladbach has been one of the Bundesliga's most consistent teams this season. Outside of a loss to Union Berlin on the road, Gladbach has made a habit out of getting results against lesser opponents. Die Borussen have taken 34 out of a possible 39 points against the bottom-half of the table and they have a +17 goal differential (29-12) in those matches.

Gladbach's attacking trio of Alessane Plea, Breel Embolo and Marcus Thuram have combined for 21 goals this season and will be a problem for the Frankfurt defense. The three attacking players have a ton of pace, so Frankfurt will have to keep a midfielder deep help their back line.

Previous Matchup

In the reverse fixture in October, Gladbach won a 4-2 thriller. Gladbach were outshot in the game, 15-13, but their quality of chances were much better than Frankfurt The expected goals report showed that approximately 3 goals should have been scored in the match.

As you can see from the highlights, there were a lot of defensive mistakes by Frankfurt, which led to easy goals for Gladbach.

Analysis

Both Gladbach and Frankfurt consistently play high-scoring games. Sixty-eight percent of Gladbach games and 75% of Frankfurt games have gone over 2.5 goal this season. Additionally, looking at the expected goals for each team, this is likely to be goal-fest:

• Gladbach: 3.55 (2.23 xGF / 1.32 xGA)
• Frankfurt: 3.10 (1.70 xGF / 1.40 xGA)

Based on my model, I have the total expected goals scored at 3.46, so I think there's good value backing Over 3 at plus-money.

My Pick: Over 3 (+123)

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