Champions League Odds & Pick for Atlético Madrid vs. Liverpool: Will Reds’ Offensive Dominance Continue?
Peter Powell/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool standout Sadio Mane
Atlético Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds
|Atlético Madrid Odds||+220|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Atlético Madrid and Liverpool meet again Tuesday for a rematch of the 2019 Round of 16 battle, with first place in Group B on the line.
Atlético Madrid stole three points on road at AC Milan in their last Champions League match, winning 2-1 on a questionable hand ball that resulted in a stoppage-time penalty. Los Colchoneros only sits two points behind Liverpool in the group and could go top of the table with a home win over the Reds.
Liverpool has been unstoppable to start their Premier League and Champions League campaigns, going unbeaten across all competitions. Mohamed Salah and the Reds’ offense has been unbelievably good, scoring 30 goals in 10 matches, but will be going up against one of Europe’s best defensive teams over the past five years.
Atlético Madrid Dominating Foes in La Liga Play
Atlético Madrid has been good in La Liga this year, racking up 17 points from their first eight matches with a +4.64 NPxGD, but they haven’t faced a team like Liverpool that’s going to press them high up the pitch. That said, I’m interested to see how they handle it.
However, if we go back to last UCL campaign, Atlético Madrid was in a group with Bayern Munich, who played a similar style under Hans Flick. And on that occasion, Los Colchoneros had no answers for it, losing 4-0 in the first meeting and settling for a draw 1-1 in the second fixture when the Bavarians had already wrapped up the group.
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Offensively, Atlético Madrid has added a ton in the transfer window, with Antonie Greizmann back at the club to team up with Joao Felix and Luis Suarez. So, the attacking numbers will improve as the season goes along and they’re also going to be forced to play a little bit more aggressive with Liverpool playing a high line.
Liverpool Finds Old, Dominant Form
The Reds have found the form that led them to the Premier League title during the 2019-20 season, with the main reason for that being they’re finally healthy at the back. Virgil Van Djik, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez missed most of last season, but since they’ve returned Liverpool has been able to play more a more cohesive style of football, which has really benefited their offense.
Nobody has had an answer for the Reds’ attack, as they lead the league in NPxG, shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances. Liverpool have also lived in the opposing teams’ penalty areas, averaging 20.13 box entries per match, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League.
Even in their two Champions League matches against AC Milan and Porto, Liverpool created a total of 6.13 xG over the two matches with seven big scoring chances, so they should be able to create chances against Atlético Madrid’s defense.
Liverpool’s defense though is due to concede some goals. The Reds have allowed 10.1 xG through their first eight matches in the Premier League, but have only conceded eight actual goals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With the way Liverpool’s offense is playing right now, there’s no reason why they can’t break down on the best defenses on the continent. I mean, they just faced a very well-organized defensive Porto side that plays the same formation as Atlético Madrid. Also, if Liverpool scores first, it’s going to open this match right up.
Since I have 2.74 goals projected for this match, I think there’s value on the total over 2.5 goals at +105 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)