Chelsea vs. Juventus Odds, Prediction, Preview: Blues Can Win Big in Tuesday UCL Clash

Chelsea vs. Juventus Odds

Chelsea look to over take first place in Group H when they host Juventus on Tuesday in the Champions League.

The Blues are on at the moment, with seven wins in eight matches since their 1-0 loss in Turin back in late September. Chelsea is three points behind Juventus for first place in the group and likely needs to win on Tuesday and in St. Petersburg in a few weeks to finish atop Group H.

Finishing in first is huge because second place will be at the mercy of being drawn with the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Manchester City or Ajax in the Round of 16.

Juventus were in a bad run of form for a large stretch in late October, but have rebounded in Serie A, winning back-to-back matches against Fiorentina and Lazio. Juventus are perfect in Champions League play, scoring nine goals and only allowing one. However, this is a much-improved Chelsea squad than the one they saw in late September.

Chelsea: Tuchel's System Paying Dividends

Chelsea have been incredibly dominant in the Premier League on paper, but their underlying metrics tell a different story.

Chelsea have scored 30 goals in the Premier League off of 25.37 xG and allowed only four goals off of 11.35 xG. So negative regression is coming at some point for Chelsea, but I don't think it's coming in this match against a Juventus squad that is pretty big step below them.

Thomas Tuchel's 3-4-2-1 system is once again working at an incredibly high level. Chelsea are averaging 2.34 xG per 90 minutes, versus allowing only 0.78 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of it this season. Also, with pretty much all of Chelsea's attackers finally healthy, Tuchel has the ability to play who he wants and sub in someone of equal quality at a moments notice.

It also helps that Chelsea's keeper Edouard Mendy is playing like the best shot stopper in the world right now. Mendy has a +3.2 post-shot expected goal +/-, which means he's saved over three more goals than he should have this season, which is far and away the best mark in the Premier League.

Juventus: Struggling In Serie A Play

Juventus are starting to turn a corner after a rough start to the season. but are still sitting in sixth place in the Serie A table, even with their 2-0 win on the road at Lazio last Saturday.

Yes, Juventus did beat Chelsea 1-0 in Italy earlier this season, but Chelsea completely dominated that match. Chelsea held 72% possession and completed 723 passes, compared to only 236 for Juventus, Chelsea also had 17 box entries compared to only five for Juventus, and finally, 422 touches in the final third and penalty area compared to just 77 for Juventus, per fbref.com. 

Timo Werner is also finally healthy for Chelsea and Romelu Lukaku is questionable, but as Chelsea have shown with those two out, they have plenty of depth up top that it really hasn’t mattered too much. Juventus are also dealing with some injuries, as Paulo Dybala, Giorgio Chiellini and Federico Bernardeschi are all questionable to make the trip to London. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If we want to compare npxGDs through 12 matches, Chelsea are +12.94 and Juventus are +6.59 npxGD. So even though Chelsea are not a 30 goals for, four goals against squad, they’ve been much better overall than Juventus this season. If we factor in UEFA Coefficients, England is 25 rankings points higher than Italy.

Since I have Chelsea projected at -215, I think there is value on the Blues' spread of -1 at +110 (DraftKings)

Pick: Chelsea -1 (+110)