Global Soccer Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Our Staff’s 3 Favorite Underdogs, Including Union Berlin & Girona
Michael Janosz/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Galaxy star Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez.
There are good weeks and then there are good weeks when it comes to uncovering live underdogs on the soccer landscape.
And last week's showing from our Action Network soccer handicappers was one of those good — actually, downright awesome — showings on debut of this season's Global Underdogs feature.
Not one, not two but three of their best bets came through in brilliant fashion to hit moneyline upset winners across the European landscape. First, soccer editor Jeremy Pond got us started with League 2 (yes, that's fourth division soccer in England) winner Walsall coming up with a 1-0 road win at Newport County. The Saddlers hit at +270 ML odds.
Then came Brett Pund, who nailed Toronto FC (+375) to give us our second win on the card. The Reds earned a thrilling 4-3 win at Nashville. And finally, BJ Cunningham closed the show with Brighton & Hove Albion (+500) holding off Manchester United in a 2-1 upset victory at Old Trafford.
This week, Pund will be joined by colleagues Ian Quillen and Nick Hennion, with the crew finding some interesting picks ahead of the latest card. And they're hoping they can ride the moment after that insanely awesome start.
If you're a new or old friend, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 or maybe something from Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite selections on the latest slate.
Our Favorite ML Underdogs
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy vs. Vancouver | Vancouver ML (+475) | Saturday | 10 p.m. ET |
| Mainz vs. Union Berlin | Union Berlin ML (+230) | Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Valencia vs. Girona | Girona ML (+333) | Sunday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Ian Quillen: Vancouver ML (+475) vs. LA Galaxy
- Odds available at Caesars
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Galaxy are talented, but inconsistent and hard to trust as they enter the weekend as heavy home favorites in a tricky clash against the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez and Dejan Joveljic have nine goals each, but manager Greg Vanney can't get both strikers on the field without exposing his team on the defensive side.
The Galaxy have conceded multiple goals in four of their last six fixtures, plus they'll be without suspended center back Derrick Williams. And while Los Angeles has won half its 12 home games, it has also lost five of them.
Vancouver has improved after a poor start, taking at least a point in five of its last six away games. The Whitecaps earned a crucial home win over Houston last weekend despite missing a handful of starters to health and safety protocols.
Strikers Lucas Cavallini and Brian White are out, but talisman Ryan Gauld is healthy. And the additions of Andres Cubas and Julian Gressel make this a more well-rounded squad.
At +475 odds, the price on the Canadian visitors is too low against a habitually inconsistent opponent.
Nick Hennion: Union Berlin ML (+230) vs. Mainz
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Two Action Network darlings go head to head and I’ll take what I consider to be the best price of the teams available.
Last season, Union won both matchups against Mainz by an aggregate 5-2 margin. Although a Mainz red card aided it in a 3-1 home win, the fact still remains Union won on the road by a 2-1 margin (1.6-1.2 on expected goals) in one of the affairs. Just in the last six meetings, Union has won four times and avoided defeat in five of them.
Plus, Union posted the fifth-best road xGDiff in the Bundesliga last season, while conceding the third-fewest road expected goals, per fbref.com. Further, in road fixtures against sides that finished 2-9 in the table, Union wound up 3-1-3 (W-L-D) with a +0.64 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
The side also kept four of those seven foes under 1.25 xG, while creating at least 1.4 xG in all but two contests. Based on those results, I’m comfortable backing a good team at a great price.
Brett Pund: Girona ML (+333) vs. Valencia
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Sunday | 1:30 p.m. ET
The departure of striker Gonçalo Guedes’ from Valencia this week was a huge loss for the club, which makes this opening La Liga match the perfect spot to oppose it with newly promoted Girona.
Guedes finished last season tied for the most goals (11) on the team, while dishing out the most assists (six) as well. Even with the Portuguese attacker, Valencia still finished 14th in the Spanish top flight in points per home game (1.37) last season.
Meanwhile, Girona ended the prior campaign with the fifth-most points away from home in the Segunda Division, so the club will be fired up to be in the first division for the first time since the 2018-19 season.
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