La Liga Odds, Pick, Prediction: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Betting Preview (Oct. 24)

La Liga Odds, Pick, Prediction: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Betting Preview (Oct. 24) article feature image
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Alex Caparros/Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis Depay.

  • Barcelona welcomes rival Real Madrid to Camp Nou for Sunday’s La Liga clash.
  • The host side is hoping it can get the best of its Spanish foe despite the fact it’s without former star Lionel Messi, who is now at Paris Saint-Germain.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup below and explains why he’s backing Barcelona in this latest “El Clasico” meeting.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Odds

Barcelona Odds +185
Real Madrid Odds +145
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 10:15 a.m. ET
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Heated rivals Barcelona and Real Madrid meet at Camp Nou for the 247th edition of El Clasico on Sunday morning.

Things have not been going well for Barcelona ever since Lionel Messi left for PSG. Barcelona are in seventh place in the La Liga standings with only 15 points from their first eight matches, which is terrible for a club with their prestige.

However, they have won two consecutive matches, including a 1-0 win over Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League on Wednesday. Maybe Ronald Koman’s men are starting to turn a corner.

Real Madrid are flying high at the moment, sitting only three points behind league leaders Real Sociedad with a game in hand. Los Blancos have scored a whopping 22 goals in eight matches in La Liga and breezed past Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Tuesday 4-1 on the road in Kiev.

Real Madrid won the last three meetings against Barcelona and will be looking to make it four in a row on Sunday.

Barcelona Attack Showing Signs of Life

Obviously, Barcelona isn’t scoring at the rate they did last season when Messi was leading the way, as their expected goals (xG) per match has dipped by 22 percent. However, they are still third in La Liga in non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) per match, second in big-scoring chances and second in box entries. Additionally, Barcelona is the number one team in La Liga in pressure success rate allowed, so this attack is due to explode at any point. 

However, defensively, Barcelona have been really good, only allowing 0.89 NPxG per match. Blaugrana have allowed the third-fewest shot creating actions and the fewest touches in their own final third, and they have the best pressure success rate, per fbref.com. So, they will have a good chance at shutting down Real Madrid’s high flying offense. 

Barcelona will be without their star young midfielder Pedri, but they are otherwise healthy for the first time this season, especially with Ansu Fati returning to the lineup.

Real Madrid Defense Looking Shaky

However, Barcelona are running into a Real Madrid side that has been running incredibly hot offensively, racking up 22 goals off of 15.17 xG so far. And this is by far the best defense Real will have played this season, having faced a relatively easy schedule without Atlético Madrid, Real Sociedad or Sevilla so far.

Also, Real Madrid has not been elite defensively by any stretch of the imagination, sitting in 17th in NPxG allowed, 10th in big-scoring chances allowed and 13th in pressure success rate, per fbref.com.

Real Madrid are due for some regression on both sides of the ball, and going up against an improving Barcelona side could be a recipe for disaster.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I have Barcelona projected at +133, so I actually do like they’re Draw No Bet line of +105 odds. Also, this will be the first full-capacity crowd at Camp Nou since the pandemic, so it’s going to be a great atmosphere.

Pick: Barcelona — Draw No Bet (+110)

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