Newcastle United welcomes FK Qarabag to St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, for what is essentially a formality in their Champions League playoff, with kickoff set for 3:00 PM EST.
After a 6-1 demolition in the first leg, the question is not if the Magpies will advance, but by what margin they will win in front of their home fans.
Newcastle is favored at a -900 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-140o / +105u) goals.
Let's get into my Qarabag vs. Newcastle prediction.
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Prediction
Pick: Newcastle -2.5
My Qarabag vs. Newcastle best bet is on the English side to cover the spread at -2.5.
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Odds
| Qarabag Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -130 | 3.5 -140o / 105u | +1600 |
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 3.5 -140o / 105u | -900 |
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Picks
Pick: Newcastle -2.5 (-110)
The first leg was a complete mismatch, and there is no reason to expect a different story in the return fixture. Newcastle thoroughly dominated the first match in Azerbaijan, a 6-1 victory where they generated an astounding 13 big chances and forced eight saves from the Qarabag goalkeeper.
While the tie is won, manager Eddie Howe will expect his team to deliver another powerful performance for the home crowd. A victory by three or more goals is well within reach.
Qarabag’s recent history on English soil provides a clear blueprint for this matchup. In January, they suffered a 6-0 defeat to Liverpool, a game where they conceded 38 shots.
The first leg against Newcastle demonstrated that the Premier League side possesses a similar capability to overwhelm Qarabag’s defense.
Furthermore, Newcastle’s record at St. James’ Park in the Champions League this season is formidable. They have already secured comfortable 3-0 victories against superior opponents like PSV and Benfica.
Qarabag presents a much lesser challenge, which suggests Newcastle should have little trouble securing a dominant home win.
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Qarabag | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | 7.3% | 88.9% |
Projected Total Goals
| Qarabag | Total Goals | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 3.83 | 3.29 |
Qarabag vs. Newcastle Betting Analysis
The first and only competitive meeting between these two clubs last week was a clear exhibition of the vast difference in quality. Newcastle controlled 58% of the possession and registered 14 attempts on target en route to a 6-1 rout.
Without home support this time, Qarabag faces an even more difficult task. The Azerbaijani side has a poor track record against Premier League opponents, with four losses and one draw in five encounters.
With their place in the next round secure, Newcastle can play with a sense of freedom. This often leads to expressive, attacking soccer, which spells trouble for a Qarabag defense that has been the worst in the Champions League. They have allowed 27 goals in the competition, an average of three per game, and concede the most shots on target per match at 8.63.
The statistics from the first leg are staggering and all point toward another lopsided affair. Anthony Gordon’s four first-half goals highlighted Newcastle’s clinical attack. The team became only the second in Champions League history to hold a five-goal lead at halftime in a knockout game.
Historically, all 91 previous teams that won a first leg by five or more goals have advanced, so qualification is not in doubt. For Qarabag, the challenge is to avoid another heavy defeat at the hands of a superior English side.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Newcastle vs Qarabag picks.
