Newcastle vs Wolves Odds, Pick: Back Newcastle to Grab 3 Points (March 12)
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Callum Wilson of Newcastle United.
Newcastle vs Wolves Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105/ -135)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+105/ -135)|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Newcastle looks to rebound from a bad run of form and get back into the top four when they host Wolves at St. James Park.
Newcastle has lost three straight matches and subsequently dropped out of the top four. However, the Magpies have played a difficult schedule during this skid, as all three losses have come against Big Six clubs. This is a perfect bounce-back spot at home, where they’ve been almost untouchable this season.
Wolves secured a late winner against Tottenham at home last weekend, which has provided some breathing room between them and the relegation zone. They drew Newcastle in the previous meeting at home and any type of result on the road here would be huge for their quest to secure safety for next season.
The Magpies are going through a difficult run of results, but the underlying metics are really not that bad. They’ve been held scoreless in their past three matches despite creating 3.4 expected goals.
This match sets up pretty perfectly for how Newcastle wants to play. The Magpies are much better when they’re playing without the ball against build up teams that want to play out of the back so they can set their pressing traps and force high turnovers, which eventually lead to high quality chances. Newcastle is sixth in the Premier League in PPDA and fifth in high turnovers, but they’re the most effective team in the Premier League at converting those high turnovers into penalty box entries. They’re number one in the Premier League in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate.
Defensively, Newcastle is one of the best teams in the Premier League, especially at home. The Magpies are only allowing 0.93 npxG per 90 minutes and have allowed just 10.2 expected goals in 12 matches at St. James Park this season. In fact, they’ve only allowed three goals at home to non-Big Six clubs this season.
Despite scoring against Tottenham, Wolves failed to create one expected goal and didn’t register a shot with an xG rating over 0.10 for the entire match.
On the season, Wolves have created over 1 xG eight times. Those occasions came twice against Bournemouth, Leeds United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City and Brighton. The last time they faced Newcastle was toward the beginning of the season, but Ruben Neves scored from 28 yards away and Wolves only created 0.7 expected goals.
The common theme with all of those teams is they are in the bottom half of the Premier League in xGA, which means Wolves haven’t even been able to create over 1 xG from open play against a top-half defense. If you remove both matches against Liverpool, they’ve created just two big scoring chances since the World Cup break.
It’s the same story over and over and over again for Wolves, who cannot get the ball into the opponent’s penalty box. Wolves are seventh in final third entries, but 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate.
Newcastle vs Wolves Pick
Wolves is a very average team at playing through pressure, as they currently sit 10th in offensive PPDA. They love to build out from the back and have the second-most touches in the Premier League in the defensive third of the pitch. They also have 46 build-up attacks and the fourth-lowest direct speed in the Premier League, per the Analyst.
That is going to play right into Newcastle’s pressing traps, which will lead to breakaway opportunities.
This is a perfect get right spot for Newcastle after going through a difficult part of their schedule. Newcastle should be able to get another clean sheet against one of the worst offenses in the Premier League.
I have Newcastle projected at -215, so I love the price on them at -150 to grab all three points.
Pick: Newcastle -150 (Caesars)
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