Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Odds, Picks, Predictions | AFCON Final Preview

Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Odds

It all comes down to one final match to crown a champion in the Africa Cup of Nation and it’s a rematch from the group stage with the host nation Ivory Coast taking on Nigeria.

Nigeria needed penalties to get by South Africa, but they have largely been the best team in this tournament. Nigeria beat the Ivory Coast in the group stage 1-0 with a masterclass on how to play a low block and limit your opponent to no high quality chances. It's been over a decade since Nigeria last won the Africa Cup of Nations and have a great opportunity here against the host nation.

It is pretty crazy that the Ivory Coast are even in this final to begin with. They have been through so much since the 4-0 loss to Equatorial Guinea in the group stage that even Hollywood couldn't write a script like this. Now they have an opportunity to get some revenge and be the first African nation since Egypt in 2006 to lift the trophy on home soil.

Read on for my Nigeria vs Ivory Coast prediction.

Nigeria Preview

Nigeria have loads of attacking talent, but their defense is actually the reason that they are in the final. They have a simple but effective defensive structure that has been incredibly difficult to play through. Nigeria have allowed only one non-penalty goal for the entirety of the Africa Cup of Nations and it came in their first match of the group stage against Equatorial Guinea. It's not like they are completely fortunate to have only conceded one goal either. Nobody has created over one non-penalty expected goal against them and overall for the tournament they have only allowed 3.15 non-penalty expected goals.

They completely shut down the Ivory Coast in the previous meeting, pitching a clean sheet and holding them to 0.57 xG on 14 shots. With the Ivory Coast still not creating a high number of chances in front of net, who says the final is going to be any different? They created 1.19 xG against DR Congo, 0.81 xG against Mali and 1.3 xG against Senegal with a penalty.

Nigeria did not allow the Ivory Coast to play anything through the middle of the pitch in that previous meeting, so even though the host nation held a lot of possession, most of it was stale, circulating the ball around the Nigeria's 5-4-1 defensive block. Just take a look a they Ivory Coast's pass map from the previous match.

image via the Analyst

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Ivory Coast Preview

After the 4-0 defeat to Equatorial Guinea, the Ivory Coast did something unprecedented and sacked Jean-Louis Gasset in the middle of the tournament. They left the team in the hands of 40-year old Emerse Faé, who had only ever managed at the youth level. They were severely outplayed by Senegal, but they were awarded a late penalty to send the match to extra time and they eventually won it on penalties. Against Mali, they saved a penalty inside the first 20 minutes, went down to 10 men in the second half and scored a 90th-minute goal to send it into extra time. Then in extra time they scored in the 122nd minute to get into the semifinals. They played a very even match with the DR Congo, eventually getting here to the final.

The reality for the Ivory Coast is they haven't been that great in this tournament. What has been lacking is offensive firepower, which was a big concern coming into the tournament. The Ivory Coast have a fantastic center back pairing and three fantastic ball winning midfielders, but they don't have a lot of prolific goal scorers. They have only created 6.1 non-penalty expected goals in their six matches, plus two extra time periods because of a lack of a striker. They did absolutely nothing against Nigeria in the previous meeting and without a true attacking midfielder to play in between the lines, I don't see a scenario where things are going to drastically change this time around.

Out of possession, the Ivory Coast have been one of the most aggressive teams in terms of their high press, ranking second in PPDA and high turnovers. While that is all well and good, Nigeria consistently were playing long balls over the top to Osimhen with great success, showing that the Ivory Coast is a bit vulnerable against a super direct team like Nigeria.

Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Prediction

The big question is what is going to drastically change in the second meeting. I say not much. The Ivory Coast don't have the attacking personnel to play in between the lines or through the middle of Nigeria's 5-4-1 low block, so they are going to be either taking shots from distance or sending in crosses, which is something they were not successful in doing in the previous match.

Nigeria are actually really comfortable conceding possession and playing in transition where they had a lot of success against the Ivory Coast and have the talent to cause a lot of problems.

The Ivory Coast closed as a +115 favorite in the first meeting and the market has clearly upgraded Nigeria from that win, but I don’t think they’ve gone far enough. I have Nigeria projected at -131 to lift the trophy, so I like the value on them at the current line of -112.

Pick: Nigeria to Lift the Trophy (-112 via BetRivers)