West Ham United vs. Brentford Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Hammers Silence Bees in Premier League Bout? (Oct. 3)

West Ham United vs. Brentford Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Hammers Silence Bees in Premier League Bout? (Oct. 3) article feature image
Credit:

Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Michail Antonio.

  • West Ham United hosts promoted side Brentford in Sunday’s Premier League action.
  • The Hammers are heavily favored, but the Bees played Liverpool last time in a wild 3-3 draw.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup below and details why he’s backing West Ham to triumph.

West Ham vs. Brentford Odds

West Ham Odds -120
Brentford Odds +360
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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West Ham United look to keep their good run of form going Sunday when they host Brentford in Premier League action.

The Hammers have been flying high to start the season, entering the weekend sitting seventh with 11 points from six games. They had a fantastic comeback victory on the road at Leeds United last weekend that featured a Michail Antonio goal in stoppage time to secure all three points.

The assist from @_DeclanRice 👌
The cool finish from @Michailantonio ❄️

What a goal this was 👏 pic.twitter.com/zoSNSjsewC

— West Ham United (@WestHam) September 26, 2021

West Ham are one the best home teams in the English top flight dating back to last season, so they are deserving favorites against a newly promoted side.

The Thomas Frank revolution has hit the EPL with Brentford picking up nine points in their first six matches, including a 3-3 draw against Liverpool this past weekend.

🧘♂️ ¡WISSAGOL! 💥

💪 Yoane Wissa pica la pelota ante la salida de Alisson y empató nuevamente el partido.

Brentford FC 3-3 Liverpool

📱 APP Telemundo Deportes ➡️ https://t.co/4hfFzDYopG #LigaPremierTD pic.twitter.com/fCiycGwHD8

— Telemundo Deportes (@TelemundoSports) September 25, 2021

The Bees have notched wins against Arsenal and Wolves so far, but West Ham will be a new challenge for them.

West Ham Dazzles Early in New Season

West Ham has looked amazing to begin the season with a +3.36 xGDiff through their first league six matches.

Under manager David Moyes, the Hammers have been incredibly effective out of their 4-2-3-1 formation, putting up a +14.54 expected goal (xG) difference dating back to last season and averaging more than 1.78 xG per 90 minutes.

Having a defensive central-midfield pairing in Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček has been huge for the formation’s success, so these two should be able to dominate the middle of the pitch against a weak Brentford midfield. 

Also, going back to last season, West Ham has been one of the best home teams in the league, going 11-5-6 for the second-best mark in the first division.

Can Brentford Keep Up Hot Offensive Pace?

The Bees’ offensive prowess is going to dip in the coming weeks if they keep putting up the same metrics going forward. They’re in the bottom two in the league in touches inside the opponent’s final third, touches inside the opponents’ penalty and carries into the opponents’ penalty area, per fbref.com.

Brentford play somewhat similar to that of Leeds in the fact they utilize high-tempo, high-intensity “heavy-metal” football. It’s a very vertical style that condenses the middle, allowing wingers and fullbacks to get space on the outside in their 4-3-3 formation.

Through the first three matches, Brentford have the third-most pressures, but they’re facing a West Ham side that’s really good against the press, ranking third in pressure success rate allowed so far this season.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think this is a fantastic matchup for West Ham, given the fact they’re playing at the friendly confines of the Olympic Stadium, they play well against high-pressing teams, and Brentford have spent very little time in the opponent’s final third and penalty area this season.

I have West Ham projected at -145, so I think there’s some value on them at -120 and would play it up to -125 odds.

Pick: West Ham ML (-120)

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