Burnley vs. West Ham United Odds, Betting Picks: Predictions for Wednesday’s Premier League Action

Premier League: Burnley at West Ham Odds, Picks

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Most Premier League fans probably didn’t circle Burnley at West Ham as one of the biggest matches of Project Restart, but Wednesday's matchup at the London Stadium is critical for West Ham.

WHU sits in 16th on 31 points, four points clear of the relegation zone. A win on Wednesday would put the Hammers all but safe with four matches to play.

Burnley, meanwhile, has little to play for, their spot in the Premier League next year is safe and European football is probably out of reach, but that hasn’t stopped the Clarets from continuing their rock solid form from before the layoff. Despite all of the issues with player contracts and injuries — manager Sean Dyche hasn’t even been able to fill out his entire bench — the Clarets took a point against Sheffield and beat Crystal Palace, 1-0.

While I understand that there’s much more motivation here for WHU in this spot, I’m puzzled by the line. West Ham had an impressive win against Chelsea last week, but they are far from a quality side. Even since David Moyes’ appointment as manager, the Hammers have struggled at both ends of the pitch. Striker Michail Antonio may be in good form, but West Ham is still 19th in expected points and conceded the fourth most goals and second-highest xGA in the Premier Leauge. Only Newcastle allows more passes per defensive action than WHU, which should keep the pressure off of Burnley’s back four.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

West Ham has been an effective attacking unit in these past two matches, but Burnley are superior defensively to Chelsea and Newcastle, and I question the long-term ability of the Hammers to score goals without Sebastien Haller (seven goals) and Robert Snodgrass in the team (five goals).

The only reason I’d consider not playing Burnley here is motivation, but Dyche has shown an ability to keep his team defending and organized. It’s what has kept the Clarets in the PL despite lacking the resources of other clubs. Two years ago, even when Burnley was well safe from relegation, they reeled off five-straight wins late in the season.

Another key piece for the Clarets is striker Chris Wood, who has 11 goals this season. Wood appeared off the bench in the 1-1 draw with Sheffield, and could make his first start since before the layoff on Wednesday. He provides a major boost in an otherwise mediocre attacking Burnley group.

The Clarets’ largest edge over the Hammers is on set pieces, specifically corners. While WHU has allowed nine (12.71 xGA) goals off of corners this year, Burnley has scored eight (10.98 xG). Burnley scored its lone goal in the upset win against Palace off a free kick, and I could envision a classic Burnley grind-it-out performance in the second half while protecting a lead.

WHU has allowed the fifth-most xGA since Project Restart, leading to six conceded goals in three matches.

There are just too many cracks in the Hammers for them to be favored against Sean Dyche’s Burnley.

All of the underlying and expected goals metrics suggest that Burnley is the better team, and history shows us not to be overly concerned about the Clarets lack of motivation here.

I’ll grab the extra value and bet Burnley to win the game outright at +330.

Pick: Burnley (+330)

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