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Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Top Plays, Including Tottenham (Nov. 6-7)

Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Top Plays, Including Tottenham (Nov. 6-7) article feature image

Julian Finney/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur stars Son Heung-min and Harry Kane celebrate a goal.

  • Manchester City to blank Manchester United in their latest derby? Tottenham on an interesting angle involving cards?
  • Avery Zimmerman delivers his favorite prop bets on this weekend's docket.
  • Check out his plays below and see what has led him to his selections.

We have another busy Premier League schedule on tap this weekend, headlined by the latest Manchester derby and a monster showdown between West Ham United and Liverpool to close out the intriguing slate.

Adding to our already extensive coverage of the event, we’re continuing to deliver more betting angles at The Action Network via our new element that will feature our three top prop plays. From player angles to team and game picks, you will find a little bit of everything to entertain your betting interests.

That said, check out below where I’ve found betting value on three highlighted props, which come from contests featuring Manchester CityChelsea and Tottenham.

Premier League Prop Bets

Man United vs. Man City

The PickMan City Win to Nil (+230)
Day | TimeSaturday | 8:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchNBCSN | fuboTV
Best odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

If anything is certain in the Manchester derby, it’s that Manchester City will score goals. Right? Actually, no.

Manchester United has somehow blanked the rival in four of their last five meetings. That’s right. One of the most prolific attacking groups in recent Premier League memory has been shut down by United over the past two campaigns.

In fact, the Manchester derby has been consistent in being subdued over the past three years. Six of the last eight ties between the squads have seen one team earn a clean sheet. This time, I expect it to be City that has the chance to make it seven of nine.

Manager Pep Guardiola’s team has been a nightmare to defend this year, but its most impressive statistic may come on the other side of the pitch. City is conceding just 0.89 expected goals allowed per game on the road this year, .18 goals less than second-placed Liverpool.

Without Raphael Varane, I suspect United could be forced to devote more resources to the team’s defensive effort and that could take away from the punch they’ll pack up top.

As long as City is able to score as it always does, I like the value you can get with this prop.

Chelsea vs. Burnley

The PickOver 2.5 Cards (+105)
Day | TimeSaturday | 11 a.m. ET 
How To WatchPeacock Premium
Best odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

One of my favorite things to do with props is to look at card totals. In this match, there’s a clear trend that creates an opportunity for value in the market.

In three of Burnley’s previous five EPL matches, the number of bookings in the match would’ve exceeded a hypothetical total of 2.5 in the category. The same is the case for Chelsea’s last five outings, and in the teams’ last six matches, they’ve combined for 19 cards.

Because of that, this total is a bit odd. The sports bettor inside of me tells me there’s something fishy going on, but there is simply too much value on this number at the price that it is being set. With an implied probability of 48.8%, odds of +105 indicate that this total will go over less than 50% of the time.

History shows us that isn’t the case, the recent form of these teams shows us that isn’t the case and there isn’t a clear reason to stay away from this wager.

I’ll take the bait and go with the over of 2.5 cards.

Everton vs. Spurs

The PickMost Bookings — Spurs (+130)
Day | TimeSunday | 9 a.m. ET
How To WatchNBCSN | fuboTV
Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

I’ll be going right back to the well with a bookings prop in the final bet on the slate.

In its first match under manager Antonio Conte, Tottenham was able to sneak by a Vitesse team that finished the game with nine men. The stakes aren’t the highest in the Europa Conference League, but they certainly are in the Premier League, where Spurs need a result badly.

Conte is a fiery manager and he demands a lot from his players. Even if Tottenham isn’t able to find a quality showing, I believe that a high-motor effort should be expected from each player. With a new manager in the picture, everyone has a chance to impress the boss, and the first step to doing that is showing you have the desire on the pitch.

This projects to be a great opportunity for value, as nonstop intensity can lead to additional fouls and cards. If there was ever a time to trust Tottenham in this situation, it’s now.

Go with Spurs on this plus-money prop.

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