Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks: How to Bet the Revierderby Between FC Schalke, Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, May 16
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- Borussia Dortmund is a big favorite over FC Shalke in Saturday's Bundesliga action, which kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Dortmund stormed up the table by winning seven of eight matches in Bundesliga play before the league was suspended in early March.
- Will Dortmund's offense stay hot, or will we see more of a grind against Shalke?
FC Schalke 04 at Borussia Dortmund Odds, Betting Pick
- Schalke 04 odds: +500
- Dortmund odds: -200
- Draw: +340
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-156/+128)
- Time: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV: FS1
The Bundesliga returns on Saturday with one of the league’s fiercest rivalries, the Revierderby. It’s unclear how the lack of fans at Borussia Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park will impact the derby against rival FC Schalke 04.
There simply isn’t enough of a sample size of games without fans to judge just how they effect home-field advantage and how much that varies by sport.
Putting home field aside, the break couldn’t have come at a better time (relatively speaking, of course) for Schalke, who was winless in its last seven Bundesliga matches before the layoff and had slipped from third place in the table to sixth. While Dortmund lost its last game to PSG in the Champions League (also without fans) just before the stoppage, it had won its last four Bundesliga matches, out-scoring its opponents 9-1 in those four matches.
I’m not putting much weight on both teams’ recent form, though, due to the unusual circumstances. While Germany typically has almost a month off for its winter break, this break is double that, and neither side has had much time playing together again to get back into form. Combine that with a derby type intensity, and it’s reasonable to expect sloppy play, especially early on in the match.
Last time these two teams met, at Schalke in October, the hosts held Dortmund to just 0.4 expected goals and kept a clean sheet in a goalless draw. But that was before Dortmund signed Erling Haaland, one of Europe’s top young strikers, in January. At age 19, Haaland scored 12 goals in his first eight matches. He was a major reason for BVB’s uptick in form.
But his goal-scoring run wasn’t sustainable, and it’s unlikely to continue, especially post-layoff. His 12 goals came despite just 5.9 xG, implying that given his shot volume and quality of the chance, he massively over-performed expectations.
Combine that with fellow young forward Jadon Sancho’s uncertain fitness levels and Marco Reus’ absence from Saturday’s game, and Dortmund’s second-best league attack is both short-handed and prime for some regression. Dortmund will also be without Emre Can and Axel Witsel, two key central midfielders.
On the other side, Schalke has had goal-scoring issues for nearly the entire season. Even when they won more matches early on, it was less from creating more chances than its opponents and more from finishing those chances off at a higher rate. To date, Schalke ranks 14th (of 18) in the Bundesliga in xG created, and 13th in goals scored. The visitors have created more than 1.3 xG in a match just one time since the start of the winter break on Dec. 21.
It’s always dangerous to play a Dortmund under given their propensity for defensive mistakes and willingness to play wide-open games. But with Schalke’s inability to consistently score multiple goals in a match, I’ll lay the under 2.5 goals at +136. I’d also consider looking toward a “No” on Both Teams to Score at +120 or better.
The pick: Under 2.5 goals (+128)