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Serie A Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring Sampdoria & Atalanta

Serie A Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Prediction: Our Best Bets, Including Matches Featuring Sampdoria & Atalanta article feature image
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Isabella Bonotto/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images. Pictured: Atalanta standout Luis Muriel.

The third week of the Serie A season has arrived, with the slate featuring a number of quality fixtures.

The most notable across the weekend card is a clash between Juventus and Roma in Turin on Saturday. Elsewhere, Fiorentina hosts Napoli on Sunday, plus Hellas Verona takes on Atalanta.

But the big question is which three fixtures provide bettors the best betting opportunities? So, without further delay, here is my trio of selections across the entire slate.

Our Serie A Best Bets

Juventus vs. Roma

Juventus Odds +130
Roma Odds +220
Draw +200
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -135)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Roma has looked the more impressive side early in the season, but I’m going to back a prop for this fixture rather than a side or total.

Even though it has come against weak opposition, the Roma attack has generated 5.8 combined expected goals through its first two fixtures. It also bossed the Juventus defense in this head-to-head clash last season, creating 1.75 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.


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Against a Juventus defense that has surrendered at least one xG to both Sassuolo and Sampdoria, I certainly expect this Roma offense to get on the scoreboard.

That said, Juventus side has experienced great success offensively at home. In its last 20 contests at Allianz Stadium, The Old Lady failed to score in only three games and created 1.42 xG per 90 minutes.

To me, the Both Teams To Score (Yes) wager is priced fairly cheaply, especially considering it has cashed in three of the last five showdowns. For those reasons, back this market up to -140 odds.

By The Numbers

  • 3.5 — Combined Roma xG against Juventus last season.
  • 1st — Current ranking for Roma in the xG table.

Hennion’s Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)

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Salernitana vs. Sampdoria

Salernitana Odds +140
Sampdoria Odds +195
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

I’m a tad confused by this line, but am happy to get involved with Sampdoria as a road underdog.

Although it came at home, I was somewhat impressed by the club’s performance against Juventus last week. It conceded only 0.77 xG and zero big scoring chances to an attack I rate much higher than Salernitana offense.

Plus, in this head-to-head meeting last season, Sampdoria was clearly the superior side in both contests. Despite dropping all three points at home, Sampdoria won both fixtures on xG and big scoring chances.


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Sampdoria also did well to avoid defeat against inferior sides last season. In 10 fixtures against opponents below it in the final table, manager Marco Giampaolo’s men earned a result in six of them.

Considering Salernitana has slightly over-performed its underlying metrics in its first two outings, I’ll take a shot with Sampdoria on the Draw No Bet line at +100 or better.

By The Numbers

  • +1/+3 — Sampdoria goal differential vs. big scoring chances differential against Salernitana last season.
  • 8 — Big scoring chances against Salernitana in its first two Serie A games.

Hennion’s Pick: Sampdoria — Draw No Bet (+105)

Hellas Verona vs. Atalanta

Hellas Verona Odds +333
Atalanta Odds -130
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +115)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Last season, the two meetings between these sides were completely chaotic.

Across both contests, these foes combined to generate 8.62 xG and eight big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.  Plus, each match saw both teams get on the scoreboard AND generate at least one xG apiece.

Although the current strength of the Atalanta defense slightly worries me, Verona has scored at least one goal in all but two of its last 20 home fixtures. That said, its defense leaves something to be desired, especially considering it got rocked on opening weekend against Napoli.


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Given how strong the Atalanta attack looked on debut against Sampdoria — a more comparable foe to Verona than AC Milan — I expect you’ll see manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side boss the Verona defense and create a lion’s share of the chances.

I lean toward Atalanta as a side, but my best bet for this fixture is a single-game parlay of pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total clearing 2.5 goals. Based on the aforementioned metrics, I’ll back that up to -125 odds as my top pick.

By The Numbers

  • 15th — Current ranking for Verona in Serie A xGA table.
  • 71 — Combined shot attempts between these sides in head-to-head meetings last season.

Hennion’s Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

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