Atalanta vs. Roma Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: (Dec. 20)
Laurens Lindhout/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Atalanta standout Papu Gómez.
- Atalanta hosts Roma in a huge Serie A showdown Sunday at Stadio di Bergamo.
- The Nerazzurri are in desperate need of a win, but can they bag all three points?
- Dillon Essma doesn't think so and explains why below.
Atalanta vs. Roma Odds
|Atalanta Odds||+123 [BET NOW]|
|Roma Odds||+195 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+275 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+120/-148) [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
Atalanta hosts AS Roma on Sunday in a key Serie A match.
This showdown pits clubs that should be in the top six of Italy’s top flight when it’s all said and done this season.
In my opinion, the is definitely the matchup of the weekend across Italy. Atalanta could really use three points in this spot against Roma, which is playing really well.
That said, let’s take a look at these sides in what should be an exciting game.
The Nerazzurri are coming off a 1-1 draw with Juventus, which I think they probably feel great about that overall. Juventus probably deserved three points, but Atalanta hung around and found a way to equalize in the tie.
The interesting part of that game is what happened with Papu Gómez. Atalanta’s star midfielder and manager Gian Piero Gasperini are not getting along, leading Gómez wanting out in the January transfer window. For that reason, Gómez did not start the match.
However, Atalanta turned the game around when he was subbed on and seemed to play a lot better with him on the pitch. That’s probably obvious to some, but it’s still a helpful thing to observe. However, the expected goals were pretty dominant in Juventus’ favor at 2.71-0.90 margin.
Atalanta is definitely going to need to generate more than 0.90 xG against Roma if it wants to win. If Gómez doesn’t start again, I think we might see the Nerazzurri struggle again.
While Atalanta currently sits eighth on the table, that’s probably a bit harsh considering how its played. Its NPxGD (Expected Goal differential ex-PKs) sits 4th at +9.99 for the season.
The discrepancy is mainly caused by its defending. The Nerazzurri have allowed 17 goals versus their NPxGA of 11.52. It goes without saying that should regress, meaning they should allowed fewer goals if the defending stays consistent.
The other element is on the offensive end. Last season, Atalanta led the league with a whopping 98 goals against its 86.17 xG , which led the league. The clubs sits fifth in Serie A, with 21.53 NPxG over its first 11 matches.
The Nerzzurri have scored 22 goals, which is basically in line with where they should be. The xGA should improve, but time will tell if the goal scoring can increase to outperforming their xG like they did last season.
The season has been great to the Yellow and Reds so far, as they sit fourth in the league. I think most would expect them to finish in the fifth or sixth spot when it’s all said and done, which would get them into the Europa League.
Roma’s only loss since its opening match came against Napoli a few weeks ago. Other than that game, it has been remarkable, especially offensively. The three draws came against quality sides in Sassuolo, Juventus and AC Milan.
Roma have beaten the teams they are supposed to topple, which is a good quality to have for any side. In its last two matches, the Nerazzurri have averaged 3.5 xG/game. The Sassuolo draw before that was unfair to Roma, which won the xG battle by 1.28-0.21 advantage.
Roma is in great form, which should have them confident coming into this tilt.
The advanced metrics for Roma are a bit eye-popping and really surprised me. The Yellow and Reds have the highest NPxGD in Serie A at +16.79. That is 2.40 more than second-place Napoli.
Roma also has the league’s highest NPxG, leading it to the best advanced metrics. Its NPxGA is currently fourth and good for the outfit.
I do think some people overlook the Yellow and Reds as a high-quality side in Italy, and this data would say they could be a valuable team to back until the market treats them better.
The other angle with Roma are the game totals in its matches. Seven of 12 of its games have featured four goals or more, with just three games having less than three goals. I will continue to play the over on the total in Roma fixtures it adjusts on the defensive side of things.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I like Roma in this spot. The Yellow and Reds are in better form and feature stronger advanced data. In contrast, Atalanta simply isn’t the same team when Gómez is starting and playing significant minutes.
And yet, we are getting plus-195 on Roma to win the match on the three-way line. Needless to say, I think the value is on the visitor.
That said, I will play Roma on the alternative line of plus-0.25 and throw a little on it on that ripe moneyline number. The Yellow and Reds might not win, but I do think that number is too high to ignore.
Picks: Roma +0.25 (-114) | Roma ML (+195)