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USA vs. Honduras Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Christian Pulisic, USMNT Rebound in FIFA World Cup Qualifier?

USA vs. Honduras Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Christian Pulisic, USMNT Rebound in FIFA World Cup Qualifier? article feature image
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John Todd/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States standout Christian Pulisic, left, battles with Canada midfielder Jonathan Osorio.

  • The United States faces a must-win situation against Honduras in Wednesday's FIFA World Cup qualifying match.
  • The Americans enter this game tied with Mexico for second place on 18 points in qualifying, sitting only one point ahead of fourth-place Panama.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the matchup below and details where he's found betting value on the game total.

USA vs. Honduras Odds

USA Odds -600
Honduras Odds +1700
Draw +550
Over/Under 2.5 (-112 / -108)
Day | Time Wednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
Location Allianz Field | Saint Paul, Minn.
How To Watch FS1 | fuboTV | Univision
Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The United States faces a virtual must-win situation Wednesday when it hosts already eliminated Honduras in frigid Saint Paul, Minn., in the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.

The Americans’ 2-0 loss in Canada on Sunday leaves little room for error in their final four qualifiers. The U.S. enters this game tied with Mexico for second place on 18 points, sitting only one point ahead of fourth-place Panama.

The top three regional finishers secure an automatic berth for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. The fourth faces a one-game playoff against the winner of the Oceania Football Confederation — likely New Zealand — for another spot.

Last-place Honduras was officially eliminated in a 2-0 home defeat to El Salvador on Sunday that left the nation 14 points back of fourth.

These teams’ previous meeting was arguably the wildest of the CONCACAF final round. Honduras opened the scoring before succumbing four times after halftime in a 4-1 US victory.

Questions Galore Surrounding Ailing USA

On paper, any points the USA earned in Sunday in Canada should’ve been a bonus. The Americans entered with only one away win in four previous tries. Canada came in winner of four consecutive matches. And the U.S. will still be all but assured a top three finish if it wins its last two home matches.

However, manager Gregg Berhalter’s approach showed intent to win. And to see that intent not met with results could be damaging from a psychological and availability perspective.

Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams both started in midfield after playing all 90 minutes of last Thursday’s 1-0 win over El Salvador. Christian Pusilic also went the full 90 despite a disappointing performance in the attack.

The result was a hamstring injury to Adams that will rule him out of this match, and a heightened injury risk for McKennie and Pulisic against Honduras.

Pulisic previously suffered an injury in similar circumstances in the first meeting with Honduras. And with temperatures expected to be hovering around 6 degrees Fahrenheit (with a feels-like factor of -9), muscle injury risk is obvious.

Defender Chris Richards is also out after suffering an ankle injury against Canada, and it appears goalkeeper Zack Steffen won’t feature this window. Matt Turner has been a solid deputy for Steffen, but perhaps could’ve done better on both of Canada’s goals in the defeat.


FIFA 2022 World Cup CONCACAF Standings

TEAM RECORD (W-L-D) POINTS
Canada 6-0-4 22
USA 5-2-3 18
Mexico 5-2-3 18
Panama 5-3-2 17
Costa Rica 3-3-4 13
El Salvador 2-5-3 9
Jamaica 1-5-4 7
Honduras 0-7-3 3

Honduras Looking to Play Spoiler Role

For all the unrealized potential of a Jamaica squad that started qualifying as popular darkhorses, Honduras’ struggles are equally disappointing. In Alberth Elis and Rommell Quioto, Los Catrachos have two of the more accomplished attackers in the region.

Yet, neither Fabian Coito nor Hernan Dario Gomez, who assumed the managerial reigns after Coito’s firing, have been able to unlock their best. Each member of the duo has only scored once. As a team, Honduras only have five goals, with Bryan Moya leading the way with two goals.

The bad news for the U.S. is Gomez brought both men off the bench at halftime against El Salvador. In other words, Elis and Quioto should both have something left in the tank.

Gomez’s squad is also dealing with a key absence at the back. Andy Najar refused to answer a call-up in the January window after featuring in the first half of Honduras’ campaign.

The versatile D.C. United player, who can play as a center back in a back three or as a left back or left wingback, was a consistent two-way threat in the first half against the U.S. in their first contest.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s hard to ignore Americans’ risky, almost bizarre decision to play this match in Minnesota in conditions even locals consider unpleasant. However, there’s also a potential to overstate their influence in terms of limiting offense. The playing surface at Allianz Field is heated, which should cut down on odd bounces you might expect on a near-frozen pitch.

And there are no gaps in the seating bowl, which should limit the influence of any wind.

All the other factors here are pointing a higher total scoring output. The Americans and Hondurans both have absences in defense. The U.S. and Canada — two of the regions’ deepest squads — have each played matches exceeding 2.5 goals in both of their previous matches to close a three-match window. And Honduras has conceded at least twice in seven of their 10 qualifiers to date.

If Gomez’s side shows up motivated to play for pride, this could be a tighter game than many expect, but not necessarily a super cagey one either. If they show up disinterested, the Americans could get three or more goals on their own and a much-needed morale boost.

Either way, I like playing the total clear over 2.5 goals at -112 odds and an implied 52.8% probability.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-112)

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