Friday gives us a real treat with USA vs. Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. The game is live on FOX and will give us our first chance to see the USMNT in the World Cup. Mauricio Pochettino’s team comes into this match full of confidence and should be able to get off to a strong start in Group G.
USA World Cup Odds Today
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -113 | 2.5 125o / -162u | +300 |
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -113 | 2.5 125o / -162u | +100 |
USMNT Preview, Betting Analysis
Speaking to the Guardian this week, we heard Pochettino say “why not” when discussing the USMNT as a contender to be lifting this famous trophy next month. There are a lot of positives to take into this World Cup opener, but it does feel essential to get all three points, especially with one of the most popular dark horses, Turkey, also in the group.
In just under two years as manager, we’ve seen Pochettino’s system adapt and change regularly, with the coach looking to highlight the key attributes of his starting lineup, rather than force them into a strict structure.
More often than not, we’re seeing the USMNT in a 4-2-3-1, which is how they should start here, but we’ve also seen that change at times, with the friendly win over Senegal a few weeks ago being a 4-3-3.
Christian Pulisic gets the acclaim, but the USMNT is no longer a one-man team and his teammates can pose an attacking threat, rather than just deferring to him. In Folarin Balogun there’s a serious goal threat, with the 24-year-old averaging a goal every other game for Monaco this season. The ability to bring somebody like Haji Wright off the bench, if the team is struggling, is also a huge positive and gives the team a Plan B.
The key here revolves around the defense. Tim Ream is a USMNT legend, but at 38 years old, he’s going to need some protection. Fortunately, Antonee Robinson and Chris Richards have had excellent seasons in the Premier League and have the speed and ability to read the play, which will allow them to cover Ream's lack of mobility. Robinson is integral to this team, and besides Pulisic, is the most important player. His ability to get forward and get the ball into the box is essential for the USMNT's hopes, both against Paraguay and further into the tournament.
USMNT Best Bet: USA to Win (+100, BetMGM)
Paraguay was sixth in South American qualifying, but can’t be underestimated here. They reached this stage on the back of some very pragmatic displays. In 18 qualifying games, they scored just 14 times and gave up just 10 goals. Fourteen of those 18 qualifiers ended with Under 2.5 goals, but at -160, that can’t be our best bet, although I’ll be betting on that also.
Instead, we’re taking the USMNT to get the victory. The team obviously qualified as hosts, so we don’t have any recent competitive games to look back on, but since the turn of the year they’ve played four friendlies against strong opposition in Belgium, Portugal, Senegal, and Germany and looked competitive for the most part, scoring in three of those matchups. Look back to November, and the USMNT even beat Paraguay 2-1.
The USMNT’s ability to transition the ball quickly up the field will be the difference-maker. If, for whatever reason, the team is struggling to take the lead, then Pochettino has both quality on the bench and players who are on the squad for exactly these moments, with the likes of Gio Reyna, a potential game-breaker.
