The World Cup has arrived.
Forty-eight countries are set to compete for the sport's ultimate prize, but before the competition begins, we have to place some bets.
Our staff dug deep and analyzed a variety of World Cup markets to hopefully make your viewing experience a bit more enjoyable (and profitable). There's a lot to get to, so I won't waste any more time with a long introduction. Our World Cup best bets, including expert picks, and World Cup predictions, are below.
World Cup Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the World Cup bets that our staff is targeting. Click on the team logos to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Spain to Make Quarterfinals (-140)
Spain to reach the quarterfinals at -140 is genuine value for the reigning Euro 2024 champions. The engine of this team is their midfield, arguably the most dominant in world football. Pedri’s creativity and vision, combined with Rodri’s elite ball-winning, give Spain total control of virtually any game. And then there’s Lamine Yamal — the teenage sensation who is already one of the most electrifying players on the planet. His impact will be felt, and this could be the tournament for him to cement himself as the next true megastar.
With a favorable group featuring Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cabo Verde, Spain should cruise into the knockout rounds. You’re essentially getting the tournament favorite at a discount.
Pick: Spain to Make Quarterfinals (-140)
France to Make Quarterfinals (-135)
France, at -135, to reach the quarterfinals borders on a gift. This team possesses the most talented squad top to bottom, and the deepest attacking roster in the tournament. Kylian Mbappe is leading the charge alongside the electric Michael Olise and the back-to-back UCL champion Ousmane Dembele. That trio alone would terrify any defense in the world, but France also has an entire trio on the bench that would start for any other nation.
France could genuinely field two separate quarterfinal-caliber teams and has reached at least the quarterfinals in five of the past seven World Cups. At this price, back France without hesitation.
Pick: France to Make Quarterfinals (-135)
Tournament Total Goals Over 290.5 (+125)
By Franco Diaz
In Qatar 2022, we had 172 goals across 64 matches, an average of 2.68 goals per game. Applying that same scoring rate to the 104 matches scheduled for the 2026 World Cup would project to roughly 279 goals. However, I have two strong reasons to expect a higher total.
Expanding the field from 32 to 48 teams opens the door for lower-ranked nations — think Jordan, Haiti, Cape Verde, and more — which should create more mismatches and higher-scoring results.
In addition, the new format awards eight knockout-stage spots to the best third-place finishers, making goal differential a crucial tiebreaker during the group stage. That dynamic should encourage teams to keep pushing for goals, even when matches appear decided, increasing the likelihood of a more offense-driven tournament and a higher overall goal count.
Pick: Tournament Total Goals Over 290.5 (+125)
Group F Dual Forecast – Netherlands & Japan (+125)
By Sam Farley
The Dutch and Japanese are by far the two best teams in Group F. Sweden were a disgrace in World Cup qualifying, finishing fourth in a group with Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia and failing to win any of their six games. They reached the playoffs through the back door, then managed to sneak their way to the World Cup. They’ll be heading home straight after the
group stages.
So will Tunisia, who only reached the Last 16 of this year’s African Cup of Nations. The Dutch were excellent in qualifying, with six wins in eight matches and a goal differential of +23. With Ronald Koeman’s pragmatism, they’ll almost certainly qualify from their group. Meanwhile, the Japanese were the first team to qualify for this summer’s tournament, besides the hosts, and have a well-drilled, practical team, who will shock many.
Pick: Group F Dual Forecast – Netherlands & Japan (+125)
Saudi Arabia to Reach Round of 16 (+400)
By Sam Farley
Being in a group with Spain is tough, but Uruguay aren’t an elite team and Cape Verde should be an easy three points that will set them up for a spot in the Last 32. There’s a lack of firepower in the Saudi team that’ll likely stop them from getting particularly deep into the tournament, but they’re hard working and well-drilled, which goes a long way in tournament soccer.
After huge investment in the domestic game, we’re going to see some early positive signs of results. Don’t forget this team beat Argentina at the last World Cup and will be more than capable of playing in the sweltering heat. They airdropped in Georgis Donis to manage the team at the last minute, and the Greek manager could be the man to get the Green Falcons flying.
Pick: Saudi Arabia to Reach Round of 16 (+400)
Norway to Reach Quarterfinal (+225)
Norway did an excellent job during qualifying and has looked sharp in recent friendlies, posting two wins and two draws over its past five matches.
This is a team with serious firepower. Arsenal playmaker Martin Odegaard pulls the strings, while Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth give them plenty of goals up front. If Norway is involved, chances are there will be opportunities at both ends.
Sure, the group isn’t easy, as France is the obvious giant, and Senegal and Iraq won’t make life comfortable. However, this is also a Norwegian side that is desperate to make the most of its first World Cup appearance in 25+ years.
The expanded format helps, too. With the possibility of three teams from each group advancing, the path to the knockout stage is much more realistic than it would’ve been in previous tournaments.
The only real concern might be the weather. We’ve all seen the photos of Norwegian players trying to adapt to the North Carolina heat, and that’s definitely not their natural habitat. Still, they’ll also spend time in places like Boston and New York, where conditions may be a little friendlier.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Norway makes a bit of a run.
Pick: Norway to Reach Quarterfinal (+225)
My base model is higher on CONMEBOL than the market and lower on UEFA than the market, but even after optimally adjusting each confederation toward their market average, this market-regressed version of my base model still has Colombia winning this group 36.3% of the time.
I get it, friendlies are friendlies, but in the current World Cup cycle, CONMEBOL has outperformed my model's expectation against UEFA. In 10 friendlies between World Cup-qualified teams, CONMEBOL went 4-3-3 against UEFA, averaging 1.5 points per game compared to 1.21 expected by my model. In fact, that could mean regression is in store, but that's exactly what the market-regressed version of my base model does.
Colombia came out of a brutal COMEBOL qualifying in third, with a plus-10 goal differential and an even record and even goal differential against the other five World Cup teams from the region, including a +0.127 xG differential.
Portugal, meanwhile, had an even goal differential in the four games they played that weren't against the lowly Armenian national team. The Portuguese split a pair of games with Ireland, while also scoring a draw and a win over Hungary. Ireland and Hungary rank well below all five CONMEBOL nations that made the World Cup that Colombia faced.
Yes, Portugal's xG differential was a healthy +1.67 in those four games, but against two mid-40s teams compared to five teams averaging a rank of around 11 in my power rankings, the schedule-adjusted xG differential is pretty similar, with a slight nod to Portugal.
The top two in this group are closer than the market makes them out to be.
Pick: Colombia to Win Group K (+250)
Colombia to Win Group K (+250)
The winner of this group comes down to two countries, Colombia and Portugal. With Portugal’s propensity to start slow in these tournaments and the wave of momentum Colombia brings with them, I think this is a good angle to attack in the group stage.
Pick: Colombia to Win Group K (+250)
Kylian Mbappe World Cup Top Goalscorer (+600)
With 12 goals in 14 career World Cup matches, Kylian Mbappe is, of course, the premier candidate to win the Golden Boot as the tournament's top goalscorer, which he did in Qatar four years ago. This season, Mbappe led the Champions League and LaLiga in scoring and, at +600, this is a great value play.
Pick: Kylian Mbappe World Cup Top Goalscorer (+600)
Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane 9+ Goals Combined (+130)
With 79 goals in 113 appearances, Harry Kane is England's all-time leading goalscorer. Meanwhile, Kylian Mbappe has 56 goals in 97 matches for France and is just one shy of the French leader, Olivier Giroud. With a bloated 48-team tournament, the World Cup group stage is an open invitation for strikers to feast on one or two lower-tier national teams. Both France and England should play at least five games, giving these players a fair chance to reach this total at plus money.
Pick: Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane 9+ Goals Combined (+130)
Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo To Score 3+ Goals Each (+150)
The undisputed two best players of the past 20 years will say goodbye to the World Cup with their record sixth appearance, finishing a journey that began in Germany 2006. They will both face a couple of lesser opponents in the group stage: Ronaldo will play Uzbekistan and Congo with Portugal, while Messi and Argentina will meet Jordan and Austria. Penalties have increased with VAR, as we saw in Qatar 2022, and these two are the main PK takers on their teams. Plus, with this as their World Cup swan song and some easy early matches, expect teammates to look for them for a close-range or tap-in goal.
Pick: Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo To Score 3+ Goals Each (+150)
Kylian Mbappe / Harry Kane / Erling Braut Haaland To Score 4+ Goals Each (+700)
France and Norway will face Iraq, while England has Panama in their group. Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane should be good to cover four goals with their national teams making it far in the tournament, so the burden falls on Erling Haaland to either make the most of his matches against Iraq and Senegal, or lead Norway into the elimination rounds as the second or third-best team in Group I. Also keep in mind Haaland's machine-like performances so far — he's scored 55 goals in just 49 international matches for Norway.
Pick: Kylian Mbappe / Harry Kane / Erling Braut Haaland To Score 4+ Goals Each (+700)
Belgium To Reach Quarterfinals (+160)
At +160, Belgium is the best choice among teams that should have an easier path to becoming one of the World Cup's best eight. They should finish atop Group H, ahead of Egypt, Iran and New Zealand, and that would give them the chance to face one of the third-best teams in the first knock-out round, and then probably the winner of Group D (likely the USNMT or Turkey) in the Round of 16.
Pick: Belgium To Reach Quarterfinals (+160)
Parlay: Brazil, Portugal, England to Reach Quarterfinals (+564)
The key is to finish as group leaders to have an easier path, which would put Brazil against the second team in Group F (Japan, Sweden) and then the second of either Group E (Ivory Coast, Ecuador) or I (Norway, Senegal). England will meet a third-place team in the first knock-out match, and then the Round of 16 could be against the winner of Group A (Mexico/Czechia/South Korea).
If you want to play these separately, Portugal offers the best value at +100. Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates should also lead their Group and then could face two third-place teams in a row, or the winners of Group B (Canada, Bosnia-Herzegovina or Switzerland) before a possible dream matchup against Argentina in the quarterfinals.
Pick: Parlay: Brazil, Portugal and England to Reach Quarterfinals (+564)
Portugal 1st and Uzbekistan 4th in Group K (+170)
Portugal has an incredibly well-rounded squad with enough depth to challenge any contender and a really good coach in Roberto Martinez. Even if Colombia gives them trouble with a draw, Portugal should win a possible tiebreaker with a much better offense than the South Americans, who were a notoriously low-scoring team in the CONMEBOL qualifiers (19 goals in 16 matches before exploding for nine goals in the last two games). Meanwhile, Uzbekistan should not be able to finish ahead of RD Congo, a much more accomplished squad.
Pick: Portugal 1st and Uzbekistan 4th in Group K (+170)
Ghana Stage of Elimination: Group Stage Knockout (+110)
By Nick Giffen
My model has Ghana getting bounced in the group stage more than half the time, so any odds with a plus sign in front of them are nice value.
Interestingly, my model tends to underrate European-based teams compared to the market, and with both England and Croatia in Ghana's group, if my model was more in line with the market on UEFA-based teams, that would lower Ghana even more.
I can see Panama, with a bit of home continent familiarity, drawing or beating Ghana. If that happens, they likely need a win against either Croatia or England, or two draws to advance.
I'm rolling with my model here.
Pick: Ghana Stage of Elimination: Group Stage Knockout (+110)
Group B Total Group Goals Over 14.5 (-115)
By Nick Giffen
This group is projected to clear its group goal total by the largest margin, with my model predicting an average of 16.25 goals, which tends to actually undershoot the total goals market.
Since 1998 when the World Cup expanded to 32 teams, groups featuring a host country have averaged, ironically, exactly 16.25 goals. That includes two groups with relatively minnow hosts, South Africa in 2010 where only 11 group goals were scored, and Qatar in 2022 where 15 goals were scored. Outside of that, the host country's group has scored at least 16 goals in every World Cup.
The reason is often twofold. First, studies have shown host countries tend to gain their home-field advantage weighted more toward goal scoring, not an even mix of attack and defense boosts.
Second, inter-confederation matches tend to produce more goals. Think of it like NFL games outside the division vs. inside the division; divisional games tend to be a bit lower scoring. Since the hosts are guaranteed not to have any intra-confederation games, all three of their games lean toward more goals. It is a bit of a drawback that two UEFA teams are in this group, but that's just one game out of six.
Third, Nate Silver's Tilt ratings have this group as an overall attack-oriented group. The only defense-oriented team is the hosts, Canada, and we just talked about the double boost they get. Notably, the two UEFA teams both have positive tilt ratings and have only faced each other once, back in 2016, which reduces any familiarity.
Pick: Group B Total Group Goals Over 14.5 (-115)
Bruno Fernandes Most Assists (+1000)
Bruno Fernandes is fresh off a dominant Premier League campaign in which he led the league with 21 assists. To put his playmaking masterclass into perspective: the runner-up, Ryan Cherki, recorded just 12. On top of Fernandes' individual form, Portugal enters the tournament as a heavy favorite to make a deep run, sitting fifth in the odds to capture their first-ever World Cup title.
The case for Fernandes gets even stronger when you look at the system. Just as he does for Manchester United, Fernandes serves as the undisputed focal point of Portugal's attack. He will have no shortage of targets to cash in on his service, playing alongside clinical finishers like Cristiano Ronaldo, Gonçalo Ramos, and Rafael Leão, while benefiting from the buildup play of Vitinha and Bernardo Silva.
Pick: Bruno Fernandes Most Assists (+1000)
Egypt to Reach the Round of 16 (+250)
Egypt has all the makings of a true World Cup dark horse. Naturally, it starts with their star-studded frontline, featuring Liverpool superstar Mohamed Salah and Manchester City winger Omar Marmoush. But the Pharaohs complement that elite star power with promising youth, like Barcelona U-19 prospect Hamza Abdelkarim, and seasoned veterans like Mahmoud Trezeguet.
Granted, this squad has its limitations. They are coming off a disappointing Africa Cup of Nations campaign, where they dropped a 1-0 semifinal match to Senegal before falling on penalties to Nigeria in the third-place playoff. However, their path to the Round of 16 is incredibly manageable. Egypt shares Group G with clear underdogs in New Zealand and Iran, alongside an unpredictable Belgium side. Should they advance, a Round of 32 matchup would pit them against either the runner-up of Group D (likely the United States or Paraguay) or a third-place finisher from another group.
Pick: Egypt to Reach the Round of 16 (+250)
