2022 French Open Picks, Analysis: Odds & Best Bets For Sasnovich-Trevisan, Anisimova-Fernandez
Shi Tang/Getty. Pictured: Amanda Anisimova.
It’s time for the second week of the French Open as we get into the business end of the event.
The bottom half will open up the fourth round for the women, and some players have an extraordinary (and rare) opportunity to reach the quarterfinal at a Slam.
Let’s jump into a pair of matches where positions look enticing.
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Aliaksandra Sasnovich (-130) vs. Martina Trevisan (+110)
5 a.m. ET
This may be the match on the women’s side that gives both women one heck of a chance to do something special.
While many other matches feature players that have expectations of the second week, Aliaksandra Sasnovich has never reached the quarterfinal of a major before, while Martina Trevisan was a shock quarterfinalist here in 2020 and hasn’t done anything close to that since.
It must be said, however, the Italian is peaking at the right time. She’s also added to her game over the last 18 months. That makes her more of a threat now than she was in the fall of 2020.
Trevisan is an absolute wall from the baseline. Her excellent movement, elite-level consistency and knowledge of how to employ spins and slices in defensive ways to avoid leaving her opposition the opportunity to hit winners have always been impressive.
This season she’s also employed a bit of pop to her game. The week the tennis world descended on Paris, Trevisan was busy building form by winning a title in Morrocco.
The biggest takeaway from that week was that she was able to hit 97 winners en route to the championship. That’s nearly 20 per match. For someone with her style of play, that’s a very high total.
It doesn’t end there, though. This week she’s already racked up over 50 winners through three matches – none of which have extended past 19 games.
Sasnovich is more a ball-striking type player. Her game can be erratic, but when it’s clicking she can keep just about anyone on tour on their back foot.
Considering Trevisan has the style to negate her strengths, it’s not the best matchup for the Belarusian. Further, while Trevisan won her three matches in dominant fashion, Sasnovich needed three sets to beat Emma Raducanu before playing a tight two sets with an underwhelming Angelique Kerber.
Whether it be style, surface, form or even statistical edges (Trevisan holds a 10-point edge in hold plus break percentage over the last 52 weeks on clay), Trevisan should be the favorite in this match.
Pick: Trevisan ML (+110 via DraftKings)
Amanda Anisimova (-200) vs. Leylah Fernandez (+165)
6 a.m. ET
As the tournament progresses, more and more of the matches taking place are going to be potential blockbusters, and this match featuring a pair of North Americans is no different.
You’ve got the big-serving and bit-hitting Amanda Anisimova on one side and the counter-punching, speedy Leylah Fernandez on the other.
Each woman has made a deep run at major in the past, with Anisimova having reached the semifinals in Paris three years ago, while Fernandez upset a slew of players to reach the US Open final last summer.
While this match is closer than the odds imply, for my money it’s the over that intrigues me. Anisimova and Fernandez both have ways to trouble their opponents. Anisimova can obviously claim the upper hand when it comes to finding cheap points on serve. She’ll also be able to punish the Fernandez second serve.
In longer rallies, however, Fernandez’s ability to paint lines off both wings – whether crosscourt with incredible angles, or down-the-line shots – and taking the ball early to rob Anisimova of even more time to reach the redirected pace is a great equalizer. This one could very well feature an extended two sets or go the distance.
The over is the play.
Pick: Over 20.5 games (-125 via DraftKings)