Tuesday ATP and WTA Tennis Action Across Four Continents
We have tennis action throughout the day in Buenos Aires, Argentina (clay), New York (weird black indoor hard), and Rotterdam, Netherlands (normal indoor hard). Throw in a WTA play from Stuck in Doha, Qatar for overnight tomorrow and we will have bets on four continents over the next 24 hours.
While the Argentina and New York Opens are both 250-Level tournaments, Rotterdam — headlined by Roger Federer — is part of the 500 series.
On Tuesday, all eyes (in the tennis world) will be on 17-year-old phenom Felix Auger-Aliassime as he makes his Tour debut in Rotterdam. We’ve heard about FAA’s potential for quite some time now. More on that match later.
With three full slates, I decided to key in on a few matches that I thought held value. You can find a summary of my three ATP plays in addition to a WTA moneyline that caught Stuck’s eye at the bottom of the article. I personally ended up hitting one match in each of the three tourneys. Let’s dig in.
Gilles Muller (+107) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Rotterdam, 6:30 am ET
Interesting to see Muller at plus money, especially considering Medvedev didn’t appear very sharp when he was bageled last week by Richard Gasquet. Muller, in contrast, had a more impressive showing last week in Sofia. He beat an in-form Andreas Seppi before losing out to eventual finalist Marius Copil. Medvedev has no sort of record against big servers in his ATP career and Muller is the more established indoor hard player. Medvedev is prone to playing loose games and dropping serve. And against Muller, one break usually means the set.
Mikhail Youzhny (+102) vs. Matt Ebden
New York, 6:20 pm ET
The last time these two played back in 2016 during the Tokyo quallies, Youzhny was a -833 favorite. Ebden won that match rather comprehensively (6-2, 6-2), but Youzhny won their two prior matches on hard courts. I’m a bit surprised to see Ebden favored. Ebden enjoyed most of his success last year at the Challenger level, where he was 23-8 on hard courts. Youzhny, on the other hand, played far more matches at the Tour level — and when he dropped down to the Challenger level, he was nearly unbeatable — posting a 13-2 record. Ebden hasn’t played since the Aussie Open, and I’m not as impressed by his victory over a rusty and seemingly disinterested John Isner in Melbourne. I make Youzhny the favorite here.
Fernando Verdasco (-250) vs. Thiago Monteiro
Argentina, 1:30 pm ET
Nando’s definitely overpriced in his first clay match of the season. At this point in his career, Verdasco doesn’t have his old class on clay, compiling a record of 10-7 on the dirt last season. Monteiro, on the other hand, is the consummate clay specialist. The Brazilian had a decent showing last week in Quito — beating Gaël Monfils in the quarterfinals. He can definitely knock out another big name tomorrow if his shots are falling (or if the 34 year old Verdasco isn’t up to it, which is happening more frequently with age). As a reference point, Albert Ramos (No. 20 in the world) was priced at -270 against Monteiro in the Quito semis last week. Verdasco has also lost three of the four matches he has been favored in this year, including at prices of -333 and -200. I price Verdasco closer to -150 than -250 here.
Horacio Zeballos (-150>-130) vs. Marco Cecchinato
Argentina, 4:45 pm ET
I noticed some pretty significant line movement in the Horacia Zeballos vs. Marco Cecchinato match. Zeballos opened at -150 and the line has now creeped under -130 for the Argentine. Cecchinato, who opened at +125 (now just +110) racked up 59 wins last year across all levels. Zeballos lost at a similar price in the first round last week in Quito and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggle with the solid return game of Cecchinato. Zeballos isn’t the fleetest of foot and Cecchinato, who came through quallies without dropping a set, will certainly make him work hard from behind the baseline. Even after the initial price drove, Cecchinato still holds value.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+125) vs. Filip Krajinovic
Rotterdam, 3 pm ET
Krajinovic broke onto the scene last season after making the final of the Paris Masters, but we haven’t seen much from the Serb this season. He lost his only match this year against Peter Gojowczyk in Doha and pulled out of the Aussie Open (and all other events) with an achilles tendon injury.
Tomorrow, he will play 17-year-old prodigy Felix Auger-Aliassime in the first round of Rotterdam. FAA topped the headlines back in 2015 when he became the youngest player to qualify for an ATP Challenger main draw at 14 years old. I am excited to watch the kid play for the first time at the Tour level.
For what it’s worth, the two met just once before on clay in a Challenger match last year. FAA took that one as a +140 underdog in three sets. Although they won’t play tomorrow’s match on clay, FAA should come in less nervous for his Tour debut, knowing he beat the Serb just last season. FAA definitely has the game to beat Krajinovic, especially given the questions surrounding the Serb’s fitness. I’m buying the talented kid in his debut.
Ekaterina Makarova (+215) vs Simona Halep
Since most of the action on Tuesday will already be underway in Doha by the time you read this, I thought I’d tip an underdog I hit for Wednesday (should start overnight Tuesday/early AM Wednesday). I can’t pass up on Makarova at this price against Halep, who just arrived in Doha (she wasn’t even sure she would play). I expect somewhat of an emotional hangover from Simona, as this will mark her first match since her heartbreaking three set loss in the Australian Open to Caroline Wozniacki.
Additionally, Makarova matches up well, and has played very competitive tennis against Halep in the past. They have split their last four matches (all on hard court) over the past three years. Makarova also should be less rusty, having already had a decent result in R1 here against No. 34 Shuai Zhang in straight sets (7-5 6-0).
Lastly, Makarova has really raised her level in recent years against the Tour’s top players She already has two top 20 wins this season and is actually 6-0 against the top 10 on hard court (her best surface) over the past calendar year.
In fact, each of those six wins actually came against players ranked in the top seven (five against the top five). I expect the Russian to raise her game once again in what should be a tight match. Way too much value to pass up at this price.
Felix Auger-Aliassime +125
Marco Cecchinato +110
Mikhail Youzhny +102
Ekaterina Makarova +215