ATP Tennis Odds, Picks & Previews: Back Carlos Alcaraz in Hamburg & 3 Plays in Gstaad (Thursday, July 21)
Photo by Alexander Scheuber/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz
- The ATP 500 event in Hamburg and the 250 event in Gstaad continue Thursday.
- Carlos Alcaraz is back in action in Germany and we're targeting a big-serving duel in Switzerland.
- Jonathan Reid dives into the two matches and offers up his best bets.
The action from the 500-level event in Hamburg, Germany and the 250 in Gstaad, Switzerland rolls on Thursday, as the final quarterfinalists for the two events will be determined.
We'll take a look at a match from each tournament, trying to find some strong positions to take in the betting markets.
Let's dive in!
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Carlos Alcaraz (-475) vs. Filip Krajinovic(+320) (Hamburg)
12:00 p.m. ET
After a slow start to the tournament, all eyes will be on Spanish phenom Carlos Alcaraz, as he'll wrap up action Thursday on Center Court from Hamburg.
After admitting to needing an adjustment to being back on the clay for the first time in a month and a half following his closer-than-anticipated first-rounder with Nicola Kuhn, Alcaraz will look to get back to his dominant ways against Filip Krajinovic.
He should have a great chance at doing so for a few reasons.
First, as alluded to, he has his feet back under him on the red clay, and after a prolonged battle in the opening round, he should be ready to go from the start in his next match.
Second, the matchup is much more favorable for him this time around.
Forget the statistical edges that he has over everyone in the field, but where Kuhn troubled him, Krajinovic will have a much tougher time.
The German is one of the few people out there that can hang with Alcaraz from a physical perspective — as he's extremely agile himself.
He was also buoyed by the German crowd throughout, and his shot-making skills and redline abilities can keep him in matches with just about anyone when they're clicking (think a much less polished Alejandro Davidovich Fokina).
Krajinovic is far from one of the more athletic players on tour and relies heavily on a traditional serve and forehand combination. With Alcaraz's elite returning abilities, not having a dynamic game against the Spaniard is a recipe for disaster.
With one match under his belt, the crowd likely on his side this go around and a much better matchup, I'm comfortable laying the games in this one, with Alcaraz likely to dominate en route to the quarters.
Pick: Over Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-120 via FanDuel)
Nicolas Jarry (-140) vs. Yannick Hanfmann (+110) (Gstaad)
Time TBD
For our other match on Thursday, it's off to the resort town of Gstaad, Switzerland, where we'll look to back a match to go long.
We've seen a few matches between serve-oriented players go long this week, and I expect the match between Nicolas Jarry and Yannick Hanfmann to be no different.
Just as we did in the first round, it's back to the well on an over featuring Jarry at altitude on clay courts.
He put on a full display of how tough his serve is to break on his most comfortable surface and at a few thousand feet of altitude.
Against Thiago Monteiro, the Chilean hit an astonishing 37 aces and won a jaw-dropping 95% of points behind his first serve. He also didn't face a single break point in his 18 service games.
With Hanfmann not being much of an upgrade as a returner over Monteiro, there's no reason to believe Jarry can't have another strong day on serve (though, don't expect him to replicate those exact numbers).
As for Hanfmann, he appears to be as comfortable as ever in these conditions. A former finalist in Gstaad — as well as a former finalist in Kitzbuhel (another clay tournament played at altitude) — Hanfmann is another player that profoundly enjoys these conditions.
With his heavy forehand more effective on clay and his big serve playing up, he's primed for a potential season-shifting tournament this week. He's already won three matches, having come through qualifiers.
This is another match primed to go over, and we'll look to back those markets again here.
Picks: Over 22.5 Games (-130 via BetMGM) | Over 10.5 Games First Set (+180 via BetMGM) 0.5 Units | Over 12.5 Games First Set (+270 via BetMGM) 0.5 Units
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