ATP Toronto Wednesday Picks: Best Bets For Medvedev vs Arnaldi, Musetti vs Kokkinakis
Xinhua News Agency/Getty. Pictured: Thanasi Kokkinakis.
One of the best stretches on the tennis calendar has begun, as we go from the Masters 1000 event this week in Toronto, to another next week in Cincinnati before a one week breather heading into the US Open.
Wednesday marks a huge day of action in Canada's largest city, as the men will play through the 2nd round of action and the top seeds get involved.
Let's take a look at a pair of matches from Wednesday's busy schedule at the ATP Toronto event.
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ATP Toronto Wednesday Picks
Daniil Medvedev (-665) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+425)
12:20 p.m. ET
It was pretty cool to see Matteo Arnaldi get his first ever main draw win at Tour level on Monday night. That said, the circumstances in which he was able to accomplish that favored the young Italian in a big way. He took on a Canadian wild card in the form of Vasek Pospisil, who is on the wrong side of 30 and hasn't won a professional match at any level since February.
Contrast that with Daniil Medvedev and the difference is stark.
Arnaldi has an aggressive enough game to someday succeed on hard courts, but for now the timing is still a work in progress. His second serve is far too vulnerable to take on one of the best players in the world, and it's highly unlikely he will save well over 80% of the break points he faces in the match.
With Medvedev firmly inside the top-three when it comes to ability on this surface, a strong return game that can get points to neutral footing quickly and a massive serve, I have this one finishing in 20 games or less a vast majority of the time.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-110 via Caesars)
Lorenzo Musetti (-150) vs Thanasi Kokkinakis (+120)
12:20 p.m. ET
Very much like his compatriot, I'm looking to oppose Lorenzo Musetti in this spot off a strong win, but one that isn't as impressive as one would think.
For starters, his opponent could not be more different this time around in Thanasi Kokkinakis. After playing an out-of-form and light-hitting Yoshihito Nishioka, the Italian is now tasked with a big-serving player with a powerful forehand that is more than capable of rushing him on a quicker surface than clay.
Kokkinakis has actually put together a half-decent summer as well, coming back against an inspired Gael Monfils in Atlanta and only losing to a strong Alex de Minaur. He picked up a win in Washington before losing to another good quick-court player in Ugo Humbert and has now qualified and reached the second round in Toronto, dropping just one set along the way.
Most importantly, he has the game profile to trouble the world No. 19, with the power that can bother Musetti on hard courts and a solid inside-out forehand that can target his weaker one-handed backhand wing as well.
I'll take the price on offer here to back the Aussie.
Pick: Kokkinakis ML (+120 via Caesars)