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Cristian Garin vs. Tommy Paul French Open Odds, Prediction: American to Pick Up Round 1 Win (May 23)

Cristian Garin vs. Tommy Paul French Open Odds, Prediction: American to Pick Up Round 1 Win (May 23) article feature image
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Credit: Vaughn Ridley, Getty. Tommy Paul celebrates a point at the 2021 Toronto Open.

  • Cristian Garin is a slight favorite against Tommy Paul in the first round of the French Open.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down where the value lies on the match.
  • Read on to see his best for the near-even money battle.

Cristian Garin vs. Tommy Paul Odds

Garin Odds -135
Paul Odds +110
Total 38.5 (-115/-105)
Time 12:15 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Note: Match is delayed until Tuesday at 3-2 in the first set due to rain.

Cristian Garin had a rapid rise to the top 25 with some impressive work on the clay, but 2022 has not been kind to the Chilean. A campaign filled with losses and disappointment can be easily salvaged with a few wins at Roland Garros.

Tommy Paul has yet to string together more than two wins at the tournament where had so much success as a junior, but this year’s running of the French Open could finally be the time for the young American.

The two will clash in a first-round matchup ripe with intrigue and betting value.

Let’s get into where that value is.

Garin Struggling For Consistency

I’m glad I’ve got some room here to talk about Garin, because he’s a very interesting character.

Garin really has no discernible quality which makes him a good tennis player on the clay such as a big forehand or incredible speed, yet he just would not lose matches early in his career. He seemed to do everything well enough and continued competing hard, and as a reward he was able to crack the top 20.

That winning came to an abrupt halt once he stepped onto clay in 2022, and we were left to wonder just how the Chilean would climb out of his funk.

After first-round exits at each of the three South American clay-court tournaments where he normally earns the bulk of his points, Garin managed to finally earn a win in Houston at the Men’s Clay Court Championship.

The form was hard to buy given the strange nature of the clay, the low stakes and the quality of most opponents. Then, he lost in the first round a couple more times, beat an exhausted Frances Tiafoe and lost again in Madrid.

Rome was much more kind to Garin, but again he lacked quality clay-court opponents to beat in his first three matches. His win over Marin Clilc was a big one, but again questions had to be asked about Cilic’s energy levels.

Garin has seldom produced at a high level and at times in the last month he has reverted back to his form from earlier in the season, making a host of errors and struggling on serve. I’m nervous on his behalf.

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Paul Underrated On Clay

Paul is a lot easier to figure out. The American has a ton of ability and has never had a losing season on tour. He’s also never had a losing record on clay courts in a given season, though he’s just 2-5 this season.

That’s odd, because Paul has always loved playing on the dirt. Even as a junior, his greatest achievement came right here at Roland Garros when he took home the Boys’ Singles title.

Paul’s ability to shape shots and defend makes him at worst a capable clay-courter, and his imagination makes him one of the most interesting and, at times, best players around on the dirt.

On the whole, this is a guy who has improved dramatically in the last two years and is due for a breakthrough at a Grand Slam.

Paul has never made it past the second round this year, but he’s been eliminated by two former Grand Slam champs in Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev as well as current top-10 player Casper Ruud.

The draw’s never been kind to the young American, but this is a chance.

Betting Value

I really think Garin’s form is suspect at best. We have an entire year’s worth of matches to go back and watch which will tell us the Chilean is all out of whack and far off the level we saw him produce even just a year ago

It was incredibly disheartening to watch Garin play sloppy tennis and struggle with serving so much over the last month.

While Paul’s not winning matches, his form is probably a ruse here. He’s competed incredibly well in all but one of the losses away from the strange clay in Houston and as a highly-motivated competitor here he should really bring it to this match.

This is a wager placed based on watching a season’s worth of matches from both men. The oddsmakers appear keen on handicapping this match based on a couple of weeks.

Pick: Tommy Paul +110

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