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French Open Wednesday Odds & Picks: Siniakova to Play Fernandez Tight (May 25)

French Open Wednesday Odds & Picks: Siniakova to Play Fernandez Tight (May 25) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Katerina Siniakova hits a backhand at the French Open.

  • The second round has arrived at the French Open.
  • David Gertler previews two matches set to be played at Roland Garros.
  • Read on to see how he's betting the second round matchups.

Looking for Thursday’s best bets? Click here!

The second round of the French Open is set to begin and there’s more value on Wednesday’s order of play for us to exploit.

Read below for two plays from the slate of tennis at Roland Garros!

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Kaia Kanepi (-180) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia (+140)

7 a.m. ET

Kaia Kanepi was on the brink of defeat in the first round of Roland Garros, but the Estonian came back from a set and a break down to defeat Garbine Muguruza 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Kanepi won 70% of her first-serve points and was only broken once after the first set. On return, she won 55% of her second-serve return points, generating 13 break points on the Muguruza serve. Kanepi’s huge game, including her powerful groundstrokes, are very hard to handle, even on the clay.

Kanepi has quietly gone 9-3 this clay-court season, although five of those wins were on the green clay of Charleston and in the altitude of Madrid, conditions that are unlike Roland Garros.

Beatriz Haddad Maia has went 12-4 on the clay this year. This includes her first-round victory at Roland Garros where Haddad Maia beat Cristina Busca 6-3, 1-6, 6-2.

While Haddad Maia only won 52% of her service points against Busca, she won 53% of her return points. This included 62% of the points on Busca’s second serve, which helped contribute to seven breaks of serve.

While Haddad Maia took last week off, she’s coming into this event having won the Saint Malo Challenger against Anna Blinkova and then making the final of the Paris Challenger the following week.

She used her lefty game very effectively, controlling the baseline with her forehand, while her flatter backhand was still solid and cut through the court well.

This will be a match between two in-form players who hit huge groundstrokes. Haddad Maia is slightly better on defense compared to Kanepi, while the Estonian really makes it a point to try to dictate.

Haddad Maia can control the baseline with her lefty forehand, dragging Kanepi around the court and forcing her into making the errors we saw for the first 1.5 sets yesterday against Muguruza.

Pick: Haddad Maia +3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)

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Leylah Fernandez (-185) vs. Katerina Siniakova (+144)

8:30 a.m. ET

Leylah Fernandez got her Roland Garros campaign off to a good start. Fernandez beat Kiki Mladenovic 6-0, 7-5.

She returned very well against Mladenovic, winning 55% of her return points and breaking Mladenovic six times.

Fernandez hit 23 winners compared to 17 unforced errors, but was hit-or-miss when approaching the net, winning 8-of-15 net points. The Canadian also showed great mental toughness, coming back from 3-5 *30-40 in the second set.

The US Open finalist has gone just 2-3 on clay this season. Fernandez understands point construction on hard courts better and her groundstrokes don’t make nearly as much of an impact on clay. In her career, Fernandez has won just 56% of her clay-court matches.

Katerina Siniakova had a strong start to the French Open. She defeated Petra Martic in straight sets to set up this showdown with Fernandez.

Siniakova hit 27 winners compared to 19 unforced errors against Martic, breaking the Martic serve six times. However, Siniakova was not great on her serve, winning just 54% of her service points.

She has won 64% of her professional matches on clay, including a WTA Tour singles title in Bastad in 2017 and two French Open doubles titles.

Fernandez is the better player, but Siniakova is a little bit better on clay. This is reflected in their Elo ratings, where Fernandez has the higher overall Elo, but Siniakova has the higher clay-court Elo.

While Fernandez will look to dictate, Siniakova’s defense and counterpunching will frustrate the Canadian and force the Fernandez to go bigger and bigger, which should lead to unforced errors.

Siniakova has played 119 more career matches on clay than Fernandez and this experience will be tough for Fernandez to make up.

Pick: Siniakova +3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)

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