Monday French Open Picks | Ruud vs Jarry & Rune vs Cerundolo
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Holger Rune.
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The fourth round of the French Open rolls on as we hit the second week of play in Paris, and I've got my eye on a match that could go down as one of the best of the tournament as well as a heavyweight clash.
Let's get into my Monday French Open picks for Ruud vs Jarry and Rune vs Cerundolo on Monday at Roland Garros.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing French Open matches.
Casper Ruud (-190) vs Nicolas Jarry (+155)
6:15 a.m. ET
This match could steal the the show on Monday, and it might wind up being one of the best we see at the championships. Both meetings between these two have been incredibly tight contests; Jarry won in a thrilling three-setter last week in Geneva and Ruud took out Jarry on the hard courts in Seoul last season in another three-set epic.
I thought the match last week was almost dominated by Jarry despite the close scoreline. He nearly stole a break early in the first set and had break point to get back in the first set when he eventually fell behind late. He would go on to dominate the tiebreaker in the second set and break Ruud twice for the match in the third.
Jarry was nearly untouchable on serve and has been bringing this same level to the French Open thus far. He withstood some pretty solid baselining from Marcos Giron and Tommy Paul in the last two matches, hitting through them as they continued to make him play more balls. His rally tolerance has grown with every month at this point, and it seems there is no stopping the powerful Chilean.
Ruud has had a pretty crummy clay season to this point, but many are buying back in after a few wins here at Roland Garros. While I admit he's looking better these days, he's played absolutely nobody leading up to this clash.
It was evident from watching their match last week that Ruud was on his back foot and the rallies were a bit too quick for him to get comfortable. I think given he's had three relatively easy opponents, he will be shellshocked in this one. It's not often you can get the better player at plus money, but I do think entering this match that honor goes to Jarry.
Pick: Jarry ML (+155 via DraftKings)
Holger Rune (-255) vs Francisco Cerundolo (+210)
6:15 a.m. ET
Over the last three seasons, I have watched Francisco Cerundulo play more times than I'd care to admit. He's grown so much in that time, finding the range on his ridiculous forehand and cutting down on careless errors. It's led him to some big wins, and he has a very bright future on tour.
One thing that hasn't changed, however, is the nervous energy. Even in a win over Taylor Fritz in the third round, Cerundolo made a meal of his service games late in sets and made countless nervous errors to let Fritz back in the match despite the fact that he really was the better player for most of the match.
This is why I can't trust him in arguably the biggest match of his career. Holger Rune's biggest weakness is his fitness, but with a walkover in the second round and an easy third-round match against an unknown Argentine, he should be at full throttle on Monday. He has the pop on his crosscourt forehand to really make life difficult for Cerundolo on the backhand wing — his biggest weakness — and he also has the forehand speed to rival Cerundolo's and make him all the more unsettled here.
Rune is the younger player by almost five years, but he's the one who has had more Grand Slam experience with a trip to the quarterfinals here last year. I expect him to squash an inexperienced Cerundolo en route to another quarter in Paris.
Pick: Rune -4.5 games (-130 via DraftKings)
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