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Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev French Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (June 3)

Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev French Open Odds, Preview, Prediction (June 3) article feature image
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Tim Clayton-Corbis/Getty. Pictured: Rafael Nadal.

  • Rafael Nadal is heavily favored in his French Open semifinal match with Alexander Zverev.
  • The 'King of Clay' is coming off of an upset win over Novak Djokovic.
  • Luke Holmberg offers his analysis and best bet for the match.

Nadal vs. Zverev Odds

Nadal Odds -335
Zverev Odds +265
Over/Under 36.5
Time 8:45 a.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev will meet in the semifinals of the French Open after battling through difficult quarters.

Nadal and Zverev dismissed the first and second favorites to win the tournament in four sets each.

Meeting for the 10th time, who will have the edge and reach the final on Sunday?

Let’s break it down.

Zverev Into Next Gear

Following a disappointing start to the year by his standards, Zverev has kicked his game into the next gear and shown that in Roland Garros.

After bowing out to Holger Rune in his home tournament of Munich, Zverev claimed that it is was his, “worst match in years.”

Post-Munich, Zverev reached the final in Madrid, semifinals in Rome and now semifinals in Paris. His two losses came to Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both of whom are considered some of the best clay-courters in the world.

After Zverev made negative remarks concerning his lack of matches played on center court and in primetime at Roland Garros, he made a statement to earn more of these slots.

Before his match against Alcaraz, Zverev was an atrocious 0-11 against top 10 opponents in a Grand Slam setting, but he secured that monstrous win.

Backing up his tournament-best outing last year, Zverev will look to make his second Slam final by way of a seemingly impossible task, defeating Nadal at the French Open.

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Nadal Looking Fresh After Injury Concerns

Simply put – Nadal looks fresh. Maybe it’s the magic of the French Open that revitalized the seemingly beaten-up king of clay, but he has shown no signs of mercy in this tournament.

Throughout a four-hour battle across four sets against Novak Djokovic, Nadal showed no signs of fatigue or pain. Down 2-5 in the fourth, Nadal stormed back to prevent Djokovic from pushing the match to five sets.

Nadal’s accomplishments – especially at this tournament – are uncountable, but let’s examine a few crucial ones.

This will be Nadal’s 15th Roland Garros semifinal. After winning his first 13, he lost to Djokovic last year, ending his perfect 26-0 record in the French Open semis and finals. But just how dominant was he before last year in the semifinals?

In 13  matches, Nadal dropped three sets. He lost two to Djokovic in 2013 and one to Roger Federer in 2005. Don’t forget, this is a Grand Slam semifinal we are talking about. 11 of those matches came against opponents ranked in the top-10 and six against opponents in the top-five.

Nadal is the king of clay for a reason.

Betting Value

Nadal is 4-1 against Zverev on clay, with the sole loss coming in Madrid, a tournament where the altitude strongly favors the German. Why would anyone expect anything different here?

I may not believe in magic, but I can comfortably say that I believe Nadal is ready to go health and fitness wise for Friday’s semifinal.

Zverev played some of the best tennis of his career when he beat Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, but even if he produces that same level, defeating Nadal here is a greater task.

Also, just for kicks, if you were wondering how many times Nadal has dropped the first set in a Roland Garros semifinal, the answer would be zero.

I expect Nadal to make quick work of Zverev, likewise to his first 13 semifinals here. Let’s not overthink this.

Pick: Nadal 3:0 (+190) | Nadal to win 1st set and win match (-132)

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