US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Shelton vs Hurkacz & Faria vs Alcaraz

The US Open second round gets under way on Wednesday, and two of the biggest matches of the day spotlight our staff's best bets.

We're taking a look at Ben Shelton vs. Hubert Hurkacz and Jaime Faria vs. the favorite for the title, Carlos Alcaraz.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks below.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, September 2

Shelton vs Hurkacz Odds

By: Chris Gimino

A United States men's tennis player hasn't won a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick back in 2003. And with Jannik Sinner out, Novak Djokovic eliminated and Alcaraz still coming back from his wrist injury in 2026, this might be the country's best opportunity yet.

Shelton is at the forefront of the American contenders, but he has a rather difficult second-round matchup against Hubert Hurkacz, a former top-10 player and a fellow serve bot.

Normally in a matchup that consists of two big servers, the underdog would be the smarter play. However, my tennis model actually likes Shelton to cover the game spread of -3.5, giving us a sharp 6.3% edge (B+ overall grade).

My model isn't random, though, In fact, here's how it comes to the edge/grade conclusions so you're not just blindly backing me:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Ultimately, with a better second serve and less double faults expected, Shelton should be able to cover this line, especially with the home crowd on Arthur Ashe in his favor.

Pick: Ben Shelton Game Spread -3.5

Faria vs Alcaraz Odds

By: Tudor Cosma

Jaime Faria is a player who's grown a lot this season, and he comes into this event following a solid performance in Cincinnati, where he beat Shelton and reached the fourth round.

However, his tennis seems quite unstable and chaotic to me. For example, in the US Open first round against Jenson Brooksby, he showed his vulnerabilities — especially on serve — in a five-set victory.

Meanwhile, Alcaraz returned to the court after a five-month break due to a wrist injury. While he dispatched Roman Safiullin in straight sets, he wasn't his usual dominant self.

His serve wasn't as strong, as he only had two aces while the speed was reduced.

Regardless, I still think Faria is unlikely to win a set, and there's good value on this bet at -125 at DraftKings.

Alcaraz did mention that his slower/weaker serving in Round 1 was a tactical decision and not because of his wrist. He probably won't force his serve in this round either, but the opponent is slightly stronger.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to Win 3-0 (-125, DraftKings)