US Open Best Bets, Picks, Odds for Zverev vs. Sonego & Jodar vs. Kokkinakis

The US Open continues on Tuesday with the final first-round matches from New York.

Our staff is targeting two particular matches: Top-seeded Alexander Zverev against Lorenzo Sonego and up-and-coming superstar Rafael Jodar vs. Australia's Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Continue reading below to find our US Open predictions and picks.

US Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, September 1

Zverev vs. Sonego Odds

By: Tudor Cosma

According to DraftKings, Zverev is the second favorite (behind Carlos Alcaraz) to win the 2026 US Open (+320).

However, I consider the German to be the man to beat in New York, as Jannik Sinner is absent and Alcaraz is still light years away from his form at this event last year, given his recent wrist injury.

Zverev doesn't seem to be in tip top form, either. After winning Roland Garros and reaching the final at Wimbledon, this decline was expected.

On hard courts this summer, he lost to Tallon Griekspoor in his opening-round match in Montreal and Tommy Paul in Cincinnati, showing inconsistency and vulnerability.

Meanwhile, Sonego is having a weak year himself, with an 11-14 overall record on tour, a loss to James Duckworth this summer and a five-match losing streak from mid-April through the start of May.

Aside from the loss to Duckworth, his summer on hard courts was probably the brightest stretch of 2026. He lost to Frances Tiafoe by a slim margin in Cincinnati and lost another tight match to Griekspoor in Canada.

Sonego has a solid serve, and I think he can keep it close with Zverev for at least a set — potentially even winning one.

I don't expect Sonego to win, but I also don't expect him to lose by seven games or more.

Pick: Lorenzo Sonego Game Spread +6.5

Jodar vs. Kokkinakis Odds

By: Chris Gimino

We've all heard the talk about Jodar and how him and Joao Fonseca are the next faces of tennis.

The youngster is a heavy favorite in this first-round match against Kokkinakis (-1060 at the time of writing), but Jodar has never played at the US Open yet in his career.

That sets up this match to be closer than expected, according to my tennis model. The model shows a strong 7.9% (Grade A) edge on Kokkinakis covering the rather large 7.5 game spread.

So you're not blindly backing a random model, here's how to better understand it and how it reaches certain conclusions and bets:

For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can’t fake elite form).

Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player’s real serve/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree — Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.

Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.

From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets — Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games — by comparing the model's estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the “edge” you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.

Ultimately, while I believe Jodar will advance to Round 2, there could be slight hiccups along the way as he adjusts to the surface and opponent, especially in sets one and two.

Pick: Thanasi Kokkinakis Game Spread +7.5