Wednesday ATP Delray Beach/Rio Odds & Picks: Why Two Favorites Should Secure Convincing Wins
Martin Keep/Getty. Pictured: Cameron Norrie at the Australian Open.
With four tournaments chugging along on the ATP Tour, there are 21 matches on the calendar for Wednesday’s slate of tennis.
For the most part, there weren’t many upsets at each event on Monday, and I don’t foresee great opportunities for shocks on Wednesday either.
Here are the spots that I’m looking to take advantage of with round of 16 play set to commence in Delray Beach and Rio.
Cameron Norrie (-330) vs. Oscar Otte (+260)
8 p.m. ET, Delray Beach
The Rotterdam quarterfinalist Cameron Norrie heads into this match on the back of his first successful tournament of the year, and he’ll be looking to parlay that into some hard court momentum.
He’ll open up his tournament with a matchup against Oscar Otte, a crafty player with a big serve and a bit of confidence after his first round win over Yoshihito Nishioka. Norrie and Otte haven’t met before, but this is a matchup that projects to be favorable for the Brit.
Otte predicates his game on playing first-strike tennis, taking the initiative in points whenever possible. He’s aided by a first serve that acts as his one of his most effective weapons, but that will be a big problem against a player like Norrie.
The left-hander is more than willing to block returns and ensure they simply make it into the court before playing extended rallies. While Otte was effective on his first serve against Nishioka, winning 77 percent of those points behind 14 aces, he also won 59 percent of his second serve points, something Norrie won’t allow.
He provided Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov with their lowest second-serve win percentages of the week, ensuring that as rallies got longer, he took advantage.
With winds at 20 miles per hour and conditions not particularly favorable to servers, Norrie should be able to get a foothold in far more return games than Otte, offering him a clear path to a simple game plan that needs to be executed.
Pick: Norrie -3.5 games (-125 via Caesars)
Federico Coria (-160) vs. Fernando Verdasco (+140)
2:30 p.m. ET, Rio
Fernando Verdasco is a player who has certainly left a legacy in the sport, but the 38-year-old isn’t the same player he was in years past. While he’s been enjoying a bit of a resurgence in form over the past couple of weeks, this will be the first time he’s played five Tour-level matches in eight days since the spring of 2019.
If he suffers any fatigue, he’s not playing the right opponent. Coria cruised through his opening round match with Cristian Garin, winning 6-2 6-0 in just over an hour, and his playing style is designed around wearing out opponents with excellent rally tolerance.
While he won’t hit through Verdasco, Coria should have the patience and fitness to seize on any dips of form from Verdasco.
Verdasco has also been a bit fortunate to find wins on tour, compiling a better break-point conversion rate than his opponent in four of his five matches on Tour this year. For Coria, that’s only been the case in one of his six matches.
A bit of regression to the mean can be expected on both sides, and when considering Coria’s Elo Rating on clay is also about 50 points higher than Verdasco’s, this is a really good price to get.
Make sure to shop around available books to find the best price as some places have this spread listed at a juiced 3.5 while some can dip to two.
Nonetheless, backing Coria is a smart move.
Pick: Coria -2.5 games (-105 via Caesars)