ATP Wimbledon Quarterly Betting Preview: Handicapping Federer’s Draw
© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Roger Federer has his eyes set on winning a ninth Wimbledon title, but he’ll have to overcome a relatively tough draw to do so.
In his quarter, we see the names of some very established grass courters over the years — including past Wimby semifinalists Sam Querrey and Richard Gasquet. The quarter also features some other dangerous players in Kevin Anderson, Borna Coric (who beat Roger last week in Halle) and even Gilles Muller (if his elbow holds up).
Still, Roger boasts a remarkably dominant 46-3 (9-1 on grass) record against the seeded players in his quarter, at 46-3 and should ultimately come through this portion of the draw. However, I don’t think it will be as straightforward as last year — when he won his eighth Wimbledon title without dropping a set.
Then again, Roger’s always up for a good test — especially on SW19.
Let’s further analyze this quarter from a betting perspective by looking at key head-to-head records, futures value and some of the first round matchups.
Federer Head-to-Head vs. Seeds
- 4-0 va. Kevin Anderson
- 3-0 vs. Sam Querrey
- 2-1 vs. Borna Coric 2-1
- 5-0 vs. Adrian Mannarino
- 17-2 vs. Richard Gasquet
- 13-0 vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
- 2-0 vs. Leo Mayer 2-0
Federer owns a stellar 46-3 record against the seeds in his quarter, including 9-1 on grass. However, that one loss came this season to Coric at Halle.
Key Head-to-Head Records
- Monfils 9-7 vs. Gasquet (1-1 on grass)
- Gasquet 3-1 vs. Querrey
- Querrey 8-8 vs. Anderson (2-0 on grass)
- Gasquet 6-4 vs Anderson (1-0 on grass)
Potential Popcorn Matches
- Richard Gasquet vs. Gael Monfils (1R)
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Borna Coric (1R)
- Richard Gasquet vs. Sam Querrey (3R)
- Richard Gasquet: (1R: Gael Monfils, 2R: Sergiy Stakhovsky/Joao Sousa, 3R: Sam Querrey, 4R: Kevin Anderson, QF: Federer)
Unseeded Grass Specialists
- Ivo Karlovic: 93-51 career record on grass; 23-13 past three years; 3 titles
- Gilles Muller: 65-44 career record on grass; 30-13 past three years; 1 title
- Daniil Medvedev: 19-9 career record on grass; 19-9 past three years; 0 titles
Potential Moneyline Parlay Pieces
- Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-833) vs. Gustavo Elias (+500)
- Philipp Kohlschreiber (-525) vs. Evgeny Donskoy (+420)
- Sam Querrey (-715) vs. Jordan Thompson (+450)
- Gilles Muller (-333) vs. Michael Mmoh (+270)
- Borna Coric (-250) vs. Daniil Medvedev (+190)
Coric is coming off his maiden grass-title win at Halle, but this match worries me for Borna. Medvedev has shown his taste for the grass over the years and, despite having a rough season on the lawn thus far in 2018, he can still turn it around at Wimbledon. I’m always wary of backing large favorites against their peers — because they always tend to play to each other’s levels. It wouldn’t shock me to see Meddy pull this one out, despite not giving us much reason of late to believe that.
Finding Futures Value
At 2/5 to win the quarter, Roger Federer doesn’t hold much value — despite being the obvious favorite. For anyone looking for a long shot in the off-chance Roger stumbles early, I would look at either Kevin Anderson (+900) or Richard Gasquet (+2500).
Gasquet has already won a title on grass this season — and holds winning H2H records against Kevin Anderson and Sam Querrey. That said, Gasquet has a tough first round matchup with Gael Monfils. La Monf owns a 9-7 career record against Gasquet, which includes a win on grass last season.
Anderson, in my opinion, is the safest “second option” in this group. He made the final of last year’s US Open and has the game (big serve and groundstrokes) to succeed at Grand Slams in best-of-five matches.
Roger has historically dominated all of the seeded players in his quarter — especially on grass courts. His only defeat on grass came last week against Borna Coric. The trickiest test Federer might face could very well come against Ivo Karlovic in the third round if the Croat is fit and can advance that far. A match against Ivo on grass could come down to three (or more) tiebreaks.
While I think Federer wins the quarter, KA holds the value at +900.
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