Wimbledon Odds, Predictions, Analysis: How to Bet Bedene-Marterer & Harrison-Clarke (June 27)
Mark Brown/Getty. Pictured: Aljaz Bedene hits a forehand at the Miami Open.
- Aljaz Bedene takes on Maximilian Marterer and Christian Harrison faces Jay Clarke on Day 1 at Wimbledon.
- Jon Reid offers his analysis for both first round matches.
- Read on to see how he's betting each Monday contest.
Bust out the strawberries and cream because the opening day of Wimbledon has arrived!
With dozens of matches to choose from to bet on, there’s sure to be some value on the board for Monday.
Let’s take a look at a pair of matches from the men’s draw that look appealing from a betting perspective.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Aljaz Bedene (-120) vs. Maximilian Marterer (+100)
6 a.m. ET
While the market may be just about ready to give Maximilian Marterer the respect of being a near pick ’em against Aljaz Bedene, I’m not quite there.
Put quite simply, this seems like a matchup between an established tour-level, former top-50 talent and a Challenger Tour journeyman with a strong lefty serve.
Don’t get me wrong, that serve will play for Marterer. That’s just about all he really has to trouble Bedene, though.
He’s far from being a strong returner, no one would accuse him of being fleet of foot, and even his qualifying campaign into the main draw featured wins against clay court opposition and a tight straight-sets win against Nicolas Moreno de Alboran. That’s not the most convincing path into the main draw.
Prior to those wins? Marterer was just 4-9 in grass court competition at the professional level.
Bedene, on the other hand, has a very strong serve of his own and can do more from the baseline. He’s also the better returner as well as athlete and just has a higher pedigree as a tennis player in general.
I have Bedene a larger favorite than -120, so he’ll certainly be high up on my list of first round wagers.
Pick: Bedene ML (-120 via DraftKings)
Christian Harrison (-115) vs. Jay Clarke (-105)
9:30 a.m. ET
What an opportunity for American qualifier Christian Harrison, as he takes on wild card Jay Clarke for a spot in the second round. Make no mistake, despite what the odds say, a loss here would be a bitterly disappointing one for the Louisiana native.
While nothing is ever certain with someone whose mental game varies wildly match to match, the style that grass courts rewards would have him as a heavy favorite in this contest.
He’s got the much bigger game than his British counterpart – whose game is predicated heavily on prolonging rallies and playing a more defensive style.
In terms of the stylistic matchup, Harrison should find far more free points via his serve and even with the assistance of a quicker court, Clarke’s serve remains far too vulnerable.
That’s reflected in Clarke’s career win percentage of just 25% on grass, and the fact that he was beaten relatively handily in each of his four losses, while only managing one win this grass season – against his compatriot Paul Jubb, who also lacks the power to succeed on these courts.
Harrison, meanwhile, has a big enough game to take advantage of the quicker courts. He’s also come through qualifying, picking up three victories, including one in the best-of-five sets format that Wimbledon employs in the final round.
While I wouldn’t doubt that Clarke is the more mentally tenacious player in this matchup, it shouldn’t be enough to overcome his historic struggles on a surface that simply doesn’t suit his game.
Pick: Harrison ML (-115 via PointsBet)