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Wimbledon Qualifying Odds, Picks, Analysis: Best Bets for the Final Round (June 23)

Wimbledon Qualifying Odds, Picks, Analysis: Best Bets for the Final Round (June 23) article feature image
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George Wood/Getty. Pictured: Lukas Rosol.

It all comes down to this, as 32 men will vie for the 16 spots awarded to qualifiers in the main draw at Wimbledon.

With an incredibly important payday on the line for all the men in this rankings range, let’s take a look at a pair of matches that present a good betting opportunity for Thursday.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

 Andreas Seppi (-210) vs. Lukas Klein (+155)

6 a.m. ET

It’s important to keep in mind that the final round of qualifying at Wimbledon is unique to the other grand slams, with the matches shifting to best-of-five sets from the best-of-three format employed in the first two qualifying stages.

That’s something to note as we delve into the match between Lukas Klein and the veteran Andreas Seppi.

Despite Klein only having six professional matches to his name on grass courts and Seppi being comfortable on quick, low-bouncing surfaces, Klein at a very cheap price is a play to get behind.

In his six career grass court matches, Klein has posted an impressive 5-1 record. His wins in qualifying over the big-serving Yannick Hanfmann and consistent baseliner Billy Harris were both in straight sets and rather convincing.

His big serve and forehand combination play well on the surface. Klein’s hold rate last season was an impressive 86% and in the two matches in qualifying to this point, he’s gone 20-for-20 on serve, winning over 78% of points behind his first serve.

The lower bounce hasn’t hurt him yet and he’s already dispatched a consistent, flat hitter in Harris.

Finally, the aforementioned prolonged format is another reason to like the 24-year-old Klein. He has a powerful game and an aggressive style, while the 38-year-old Italian is in the twilight of his career.

While I don’t mind the over, going for the moneyline looks to be the better position here.

Pick: Klein ML (+155 via FanDuel)

Lukas Rosol (-192) vs. Renzo Olivo (+142)

6 a.m. ET

Another choice that may seem odd on the surface, but looks to present some value once you dig into it features Lukas Rosol and Renzo Olivo.

While the clay-court grinding style of the Argentine may not seem like a logical fit on grass, there are a few reasons to like him in this spot.

The first is that he can be really strong on return when he’s on top of his game. That ability is worth a lot on a surface that is heavily serve-oriented.

Secondly, he’s the much better mover/athlete and his dropshot has proven to be a key weapon in his first two rounds. Anyone that can effectively pull the string effectively with the dropshot on a court that rewards slicing and lower bounces is going to have an advantage.

That becomes an even more potent weapon against a poor-moving 36-year-old. It also forces Rosol to concede points or expend energy. Again, in a format that will reward athleticism and endurance, that is an advantage for Olivo.

With Rosol being in pretty poor form entering qualifiers – he had won just one match in five events on any of the professional tours – and having beaten a fish out of water in Seyboth Wild and a totally different type of opponent in Chris Eubanks, I’m keen to fade him.

Even if at first glance, Olivo doesn’t seem to be the best candidate to beat Rosol, this is a great price.

Pick: Olivo ML (+142 via FanDuel)

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