WTA ‘s-Hertogenbosch Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Li to Play Samsonova Tight (June 6)
Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Ann Li.
Iga Swiatek might have just won the French Open title on Saturday, but the grass season is now here!
I've found two spots on Monday's order of play in 's-Hertogenbosch where value has presented itself.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (-264) vs. Dayana Yastremska (+198)
5:30 a.m. ET
Ekaterina Alexandrova's clay-court season ended with a thud in the second round of Roland Garros. Alexandrova will be thrilled to get onto the grass.
She has a 17-13 career record on the surface and only played five matches on the grass last season, going 3-2. However, Alexandrova's game suits the grass very well.
Alexandrova has a big first serve and really tries to be aggressive from both her forehand and backhand wing. Grass suits big servers and who can take the initiative in rallies.
Alexandrova is in the top 20 on the WTA Tour for the percentage of overall service points won and the top 10 for the percentage first-serve points won this season.
But, she is playing another powerful opponent who likes playing on grass in Dayana Yastremska. Yastremska will be thrilled to get off the clay, where she had lost three matches in a row, including in the first round of Roland Garros.
Yastremska has a 15-10 record in professional matches on grass, but hasn't played on the surface since 2019. With that said, in 2019 Yastremska was one set away from the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and she also was a finalist in the 2016 junior Wimbledon event.
The Ukrainian has a huge first serve which can give her free points and set up short balls. Yastremska also tries to be aggressive with her groundstrokes and can take command of the baseline very effectively.
While it's concerning that Yastremska hasn't played on grass since 2019, Alexandrova has only played five matches, so there's not a huge disparity there.
These two will both enjoy the surface switch. They both have big serves and will try to take the initiatives in points with their powerful groundstrokes.
In addition, neither player is a great returner and I don't think Alexandrova nor Yastremska will be able to generate too many return opportunities on the other's serve.
Pick: Over 21.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)
Liudmilla Samsonova (-304) vs. Ann Li (+225)
8 a.m. ET
Liudmilla Samsonova comes into 's-Hertogenbosch on a four-match losing streak. Most recently, Samsonova lost in the first round of Roland Garros.
While Samsonova struggled recently on clay, she will be ecstatic to be back on the grass, much like the aforementioned players. Samsonova is 15-4 on grass in her career, including a 10-1 record last season.
In fact, Samsonova beat Belinda Bencic 1-6, 6-1, 6-3 to capture the title of the WTA Berlin event last season.
Samsonova's success on grass last season was largely due to her first serve. Samsonova won over 75% of her first-serve points in 8-of-11 grass-court matches last season.
This year, Samsonova is in the top 10 for both service games won and service points won on the WTA Tour. She has hyper-aggressive groundstrokes, as well.
Ann Li played just one clay-court match this season, retiring up 6-3, 3-2 against Alison Van Uytvanck. Li had injured her right shoulder and was unable to continue playing.
However, I haven't seen anything out there that Li won't be ready to go in this match. The American has played just 10 matches on grass in her career, going 3-7. However, Li is a former finalist in the Wimbledon juniors event and even took a set off of Petra Kvitova last season on the grass of Bad Homburg.
Li is not a traditional grass-courter, but her game adapts well in theory. She maintains control of the baseline well and does not get pushed around easily.
The American very solid from both wings, but her groundstrokes cut through the court nicely and she has the variety to keep the ball low and out of opponents' strike zones.
Samsonova is a dangerous grass-court player, but she's lost four matches in a row and won 60% or less of her service points in all of those matches.
Three of those matches went three sets, as an erratic Samsonova traded huge winners and poor unforced errors. Regardless of the surface, Samsonova is not playing well right now.
Li does a great job of not giving up the baseline and she will not let Samsonova push her around too much. She's also solid and can redirect power at a high level, which will be key for her match against Samsonova.
Trust her to push this match over the total.
Pick: Over 20.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
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