Lynx vs. Sun Odds, Picks: WNBA Predictions & Betting Preview (August 1)
Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jessica Shepard #10 of the Minnesota Lynx.
Lynx vs. Sun Odds
The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun face off on Tuesday night on ESPN in a rematch of what was one of the biggest upsets of the season just two days ago.
The Lynx, without easily their best player in Napheesa Collier, have now defeated the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun, both on the road and both as double-digit underdogs, in what is definitely the wildest two-game streak of the season. They now go for a third wild win in a week, as the books didn't blink after their Sunday win, posting them as 11.5-point underdogs yet again.
This should be an interesting game to cap. Every bettor who focuses on one sport a lot knows those teams whom they just can't solve. They zig when you think zag, and there always seems to be some funky thing happening when you bet them.
This is a combination of those two teams for me. On Sunday, I was on the Sun to cover and Diamond Miller to exceed her point total. Somehow the Lynx won the game, scored 87 points, and Miller totaled seven points all game — go figure.
So I do see an edge here — a couple of them — but these two teams have that crazy feel of ones that just zig when you want them to zag, and while that is just about the least analytical sentence you'll read from me, it's why I'm making these plays leans rather than best bets for today.
The Lynx are in full Ewing Theory Mode right now, having collected these two aforementioned shocking wins without their best player. The team has taken contributions from several different sources who have been unreliable all season, but they have looked great the past two games.
Kayla McBride was a preseason pick of mine to really take off in a bigger role, but it has been stops and starts until the last two games where she has totaled 45 points on 75% from the field and 57.1% from 3.
Cheryl Reeve also dusted off Aerial Powers last game, and she instantly went for 14 points on just eight shots. Jessica Shepard and Dorka Juhasz have been holding things down in the post, and once again we see a team freed up to play with a faster pace once the central part of its offense is out due to injury.
From a zoomed-out lens, the Sun are still in great shape. With over a third of the season left, they have already nearly matched their preseason win total that the books set for them. They have handled the loss of Jonquel Jones in the offseason and Brionna Jones (to injury) early in the actual season, and Stephanie White has looked like an outstanding hire in replacement of the legendary Curt Miller.
However, they quietly have their two worst losses of the season since the All-Star break, with losses to the Mercury and the Lynx.
Alyssa Thomas looks like she might be feeling the burden of carrying the entire offense a bit, with a 37.1% field goal percentage since the break.
On the surface, this feels like a huge get-right spot for the Sun, with this same Lynx team that surprised them last game sticking around maybe one game too long and taking a big L.
However, what I feel far more confident in is the total in this game. The pace for this matchup on Sunday was 81.3, which is faster than all but one team average for the season.
That game went well over the 160.5 total, and the books only bumped the number up two points for Tuesday night. The Lynx shot a bit over their head on Sunday, but the Sun were on the other side of that coin, especially from 3.
On the player-prop side, I'm looking at McBride to hit at least two 3s at -165 at FanDuel. She is averaging 2.1 made 3s per game for the season and 4.0 made 3s in the last two games. She won't keep this scorching shooting going, but she has gotten off seven attempts per game without Phee.
I'm also betting Jessica Shepard's rebounding prop, which sits at 7.5. She grabbed 14 boards on Sunday and is getting her minutes bumped up as she returns from injury.