WNBA Betting: A Profitable ATS System for Storm-Liberty

The Seattle Storm enter Tuesday’s matchup (7 p.m. ET) at the New York Liberty with four wins in their last five, outscoring their opponents by 8.2 points per game over that span. The Storm (12-5) are a 4-point favorite with a total of 162.5.

 

New York (5-11), with the second-worst record in the league, has dropped four of five and has been outscored by 8.8 points per game during the past week. The Liberty are trending downward, while the Storm are trending in the right direction. The line reflects the current course of each squad.

The oddsmakers opened Seattle as 5-point road favorites. All signs point to the chalk, but is there value betting the favorite? Using Bet Labs, I’ve found a profitable against-the-spread system that can be used in Storm-Liberty.

On paper this looks like a great spot for Seattle. Yet, the line has quickly moved from Storm -5 to -4. Sharp money is responsible for the shifting odds. A steam move bet signal was triggered less than 10 minutes after the lines opened — early bird gets the worm!

What do the pros know that we don’t? It has been profitable to bet teams on a bad streak (have been outscored on average in past five games) when they face an opponent on a good streak (have outscored opponents on average in past five games).

Since 2005, teams in this situation have gone 632-511-28 (55%) ATS. A 55%-win rate isn’t eye-popping, but you can’t argue with the sample size (+1,000 games) or the results (profitable in 12 of 14 seasons since 2005). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $9,216 following this strategy.

Of course, we can improve this system. One way is to look at line movement. If the line moves in the direction of the team on a bad streak by one or more points, like it has for the Liberty, the system has gone 175-109-8 (62%) ATS.

Nearly 70% of spread tickets are on the favorite, but sharp money and a profitable betting system suggest taking the Liberty at home.

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