WNBA Odds & Picks: 7 Ways to Bet Sunday’s Slate, Including Sky vs. Mercury, Wings vs. Sparks

We finally made it. The final day of the regular season is here and at last we have a few pieces of the puzzle in place.

The Connecticut Sun (#3 seed) will be hosting the Dallas Wings (#6 seed) in the first round — a series in which the underdog won the regular season series, 2-1. (However, I do not see that repeating in the postseason.)

We also know the Seattle Storm (#4 seed) have earned first-round, home-court advantage over the team they were trading places back-and-forth with all season, the Washington Mystics (#5 seed). (I am leaning heavily to the higher seed in this series as well and may even be looking to bet the Storm to take the series without even needing to head to Washington.)

However, there's still plenty to determine on Sunday as the Aces and Sky are still battling for the top seed and the Mercury, Liberty, Dream and Lynx all still have life at the other half of the bracket.

There are storylines to follow, motivations to weigh or not weigh and a million different betting angles you can talk yourself into for the final day, which is as fun as it is terrifying. Overall, the Sunday theme will be similar to last time around: The end of the season is the hardest possible time to bet because it's just paying a five (or even six or seven for the W) percent vig for what is pure chaos.

Now, there are edges we can hopefully find, but it will be more leans than picks again, even though we did alright Tuesday despite fears of chaos.

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WNBA Odds, Picks

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Lynx vs. Sun

Injuries/News

No surprising names here, just the players who have been out for a while for both sides.

Getting Fowles to the Postseason?

Of all the games on Sunday, this is arguably the one with the biggest gap in how much the teams have on the line.

The Sun are locked in to the three seed. On the other side of the court, the Lynx not only have to win and have some luck later in the day, but they have the added motivation to keep Mama Syl's career going.

Of course, with Connecticut and Curt Miller, that doesn't always mean what you might think it means. The Sun have had late season "meaningless" games in seasons past where Miller runs his starters pretty much full minutes, so there's definitely a bit of danger here in buying the "more motivated team" angle.

Plus, it's not just the WNBA where there is danger in those waters. Just mention the Week 18 Colts-Jags game of last NFL season to a bettor and see their reaction.

I was actually on the Jaguars side on that one, but this one's a little different to me because Jacksonville had pride to play for. The Sun just don't want to get hurt before the postseason.

I logged a Minnesota +10.5 in the app when the line first came out, which I could've talked myself into a near-full recommendation on. Now that it's +8.5 at FanDuel (it's down all the way to +7 at Caesars), I still like the play, but it's a lean, not a full pick.

If for some reason the moneyline moves back above +400 where it originally started, I'd also recommend a sprinkle there, but I don't see the line moving back that way.

Lean: Minnesota +8.5 

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Dream vs. Liberty

Injuries/News

The Dream have four players out on the final day of the season: AD Durr, Nia Coffey,Tiffany Hayes, and Kristy Wallace. 

The Liberty, knock on wood, appear to be fully healthy just in time for the postseason. Of course, that sentence likely just caused a pulled hamstring or two for a team that just can't seem to line up their health this season.

One of the Strangest Opening Lines I've Seen

FanDuel has taken to releasing their WNBA lines a full day before the games, which — first of all — is awesome! In the case of the final day of the season, they even released them a near 48 hours early, giving us Friday evening and all of Saturday to dive into these games.

The trippy thing about the line being live before Friday's game happening though, was that the Liberty and Dream had two lines out at the same time. One for Friday's game in Atlanta and one for Sunday's game in New York.

And here's where it gets weird.

The Friday line, which again, was in Atlanta, closed around New York -1.5. Since it was indeed in Atlanta, the implication was that the Liberty would be about 4.5 points better on a neutral court and 7.5 points better on their home court.

Now, even if we say home-court advantage isn't quite what it used to be in the W and bump that all the way down to two points, the Sunday line — in New York — should have opened around New York -5.5.

So, what was the line?

Atlanta -1.5.

WHAT?!? The books thought New York would win in Atlanta and then Atlanta would win in New York? Outside of just setting a line with a gut feeling, I truly don't know how they got there. It wasn't the motivation angle. Even if the Liberty won Friday (as they did), Sunday's game was always going to matter for the Liberty.

The line didn't budge at first, as some lines sometimes disappear when they are that far off of what makes sense. The books were disagreeing with themselves! In live time! It doesn't appear as though the books are truly married to whatever crazy logic they were using to get there either because the line has moved all the way out to New York -2.5 (and even -3 at some books).

Maybe the idea is that the Liberty are wildly inconsistent? But this is a fully healthy Liberty team that handily covered on the road in Atlanta on Friday and needs to win again on Sunday. I'm going to be honest, this line is so supremely delicious even after having moved several points, that I'm actually terrified that Vegas knows something. But, I can't not recommend what I still see as nearly a five-point edge.

Pick: New York -2.5
Pick: New York -134

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Fever vs. Mystics

Injuries/News

Kelsey Mitchell is done for the season for the Fever. The other two players who may or may not play are a lot more fluid. Danielle Robinson missed the last Fever game and is likely to sit out because Indiana has no need to push her, though there's no update as of this writing. Queen Egbo is even more up in the air. The star rookie was pulled from the starting lineup before the team's last game, but still played 15 minutes.

For the Mystics, Myisha Hines-Allen isn't with the team due to health and safety protocols, and with the team locked into the fifth seed, one has to imagine Elena Delle Donne will not be playing significant minutes, if at all. That has not been officially announced, though.

Break the Streak?

The Fever are currently riding a gnarly 17-game losing streak. Luckily, they won't be able to break, or even tie, the all-time record, but it's a streak in which they have lost by double-digits a dozen times, with a net rating, in total, of -17.1. They are 6-10-1 against the spread in those games and this is accounting for the fact that they are typically double-digit underdogs.

However, with the Mystics locked into the fifth seed, there's at least some intrigue about the Fever having a chance against a Washington team that may either rest starters or just treat the game as a glorified warm-up for the postseason.

It's telling that despite that distinct possibility, the Fever are still double-digit dogs. To reiterate the theme of this preview, this is basically a dart toss, but I'm going with a Fever cover. I bet the moneyline of a super low-stakes dart toss in the app at +630, but the line has already shifted to no higher than +550, which feels just short enough to avoid recommending, even as a lean.

I do, however, like a lean to the over. The worry is that the Mystics play their bench and they aren't big scorers, but I don't think the defensive effort in this game will be all-world by any means.

Lean: Indiana +11.5
Lean: Over 158.5

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Storm vs. Aces

Injuries/News

The only new name here in recent days is Dearica Hamby, who is out for a few weeks for the Aces.

More Line Chaos!

Earlier we covered the extreme bizarreness of the line for Sunday's Dream-Liberty game, but this Storm-Aces line can almost rival it.

The line opened at Las Vegas -10.5, which seems crazy on the surface, but makes sense when you factor in the fact that the Aces need to win to grab the top overall seed, whereas the Storm are the fourth seed no matter what happens.

The line lasted at -10.5 for a while before jumping all the way to Aces -4 at every book. There will sometimes be quick shifts in WNBA lines, but it's rarely a full 6 1/2 points at once. Ah, the joys of betting the final day of the regular season!

Typically when a line moves that big that fast, someone knows something. Maybe it's someone knows Noelle Quinn goes to the Curt Miller school of playing her players no matter what, but the strange part is the line has started drifting back toward the Aces.

This could be that the public doesn't know what the books do and they're a public team regardless, but all in all, it's just a funky game and a funky line. Say it with me: Betting the final day of the regular season is terrifying and a fool's errand.

With what I know, I like the Aces side, so I'll go that way, but only with a lean.

Lean: Las Vegas -5.5 

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Sky vs. Mercury

Injuries/News

The Mercury are officially without all of their Big Three to end the season with Brittney Griner unlawfully detained, Diana Taurasi out with a quad injury and Skylar Diggins-Smith in a seemingly very strange spot, having had her contract terminated by Phoenix this week.

For Chicago, it's the opposite, with no names on the injury report.

The Sky will be Watching ABC

Lots of sports, when they have a full slate of games on the final day of the regular season, will start every game at the same time to avoid any funny business. The WNBA is not doing so this season and it makes sense from a TV perspective. The league gets two ABC games, two ESPN3 games, an Amazon Prime game and an NBA TV game.

However, it makes for some potential funny business. The Sky, as of this second, actually do have a fair amount to play for. They are sitting in the second seed, but if the Storm can go into Michelob ULTRA Arena and come out with a win over the Aces (which will be ending right around the time Chicago will tip-off), the Sky can then clinch home-field advantage for the postseason with a win on Sunday.

Of course, if the Aces take care of business in the prime 3:00 p.m. ET slot on ABC, then the Sky have nothing to play for. Given the relative age of the squad, as well as the fact that they know they can win a title without having home-court advantage (see; last season), they might not be killing themselves Sunday regardless.

On the other side of the court, the Mercury are facing yet another virtual play-in game. Technically, they can lose and still make the postseason, but they won't be treating it that way. And before you write off this team without all their stars, take note of their pair of recent, somewhat stunning, wins without any of those three. With home court, the Mercury were able to beat both the Liberty and Wings — a pair of likely postseason teams — with Diamond DeShields leading the charge.

Keep an eye on this line while you're watching Seattle-Las Vegas on Sunday. The only way I'm going to lean right now is to put a small play on a Mercury win since that number is a solid +240. But, if Seattle goes into Vegas and is looking like they could win, I might get back on the other side of this because I think a fully healthy and motivated Sky team should be able to run all over the Mercury.

Lean: Phoenix +240 

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Wings vs. Sparks

Injuries/News

This is the game with the least on the line on Sunday, so I could see some names popping up here late, but as of now, it's just the known for Dallas: Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, and the usual names for L.A. plus a questionable Chiney Ogwumike.

The Full Stay Away

This whole preview has been one big PLEASE STAY AWAY advertisement, but in a sea of Stay Aways, Sunday night's finale still manages to stand out.

The Sparks are eliminated from the postseason and have been impossible to read, regardless. The Wings have clinched and have barely looked motivated since, having blown a pair of recent leads.

I know you may want to have some action on the last game of the night and I don't blame you if you want to sprinkle an over, or an L.A. +4.5 since who on earth knows what will happen in this game, but I can't in good conscious hand out a pick for this game.

Pick: Get some rest for the postseason bets to come

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