WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions for Friday: Sky at Wings, Dream at Storm, Aces at Sparks (July 2)

WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions for Friday: Sky at Wings, Dream at Storm, Aces at Sparks (July 2) article feature image

Cooper Neill/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Arike Ogunbowale #24 of the Dallas Wings.

  • Friday night's WNBA slate features three games, two of which are rematches from Wednesday.
  • Michael Arinze details his favorite bets for Sky vs. Wings, Dream vs. Storm and Aces vs. Sparks, including his spread and over/under projections for each matchup.

We have three games on the WNBA schedule for Friday. Two of those games will be a rematch of the same teams that played on Wednesday night. Rematches at times can be tricky, so I've kept a running log to see how often we've either had a series sweep or split in those games.

This season, there have been 18 instances in which the same teams faced one another in consecutive games. Ten of those instances resulted in a series sweep, and eight ended in a split. If we judge those games based on the point spread, we'll find eight instances where one team covered the spread in both games with 10 resulting in a split.

I also went through the same process with the totals in the game and identified 10 instances where both games either finished above or under the total.

I'm still not sure what all this means in the long run, but I figure it's something that could be worthwhile at some point in a handicap.

So now, with that out of the way, let's dive into today's slate.

Projected WNBA Odds

MatchupTimeProj. SpreadProj. Total
Sky at Wings8 p.m. ETSky -3165.14
Dream at Storm10 p.m. ETStorm -11.36166.67
Aces at Sparks10 p.m. ETAces -16.13167.39

Sky at Wings Odds

Sky Odds-2.5
Wings Odds+2.5
Over/Under167 (-114/-113)
Time8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday via DraftKings

Value on the Over in Dallas

This is one of the rematches from Wednesday, and my handicap targeted a play on the total after some research revealed that the over cashed in six of the last seven meetings in Dallas. After going back and reviewing how things played out, I don't see any reason to deviate from that approach.

I highlighted two things going into the game: Dallas's propensity to foul (20.7 per game) and Chicago's ability to draw fouls (19.3 per game). Dallas ended up finishing with 20 fouls in the game, which led to 19 free throws for Chicago.

Surprisingly, Chicago shot just 68.4% from the free-throw line in the game, and they were shooting 87.5% coming in. However, where Chicago was impressive was their 3-point shooting as they shot 10-of-23 (43.5%).

The Wings still managed to get to 81 points in the game despite only scoring 11 points in the first quarter. They also shot just 6-of-25 (24%) from behind the arc, and while one of the Sky's strengths is its perimeter play, I think Dallas can shoot a bit better than that.

Coming into this game, Chicago has scored more than 90 points in six of its past nine games since Candace Parker returned from injury. These are two good offensive teams, and with the total now 8-1 to the over with Chicago on the road in Dallas, I like the over here again, but I'll instead use it as part of a two-team teaser.

Pick: Over via 4.5-point teaser (down to 160)

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Dream at Storm Odds

Dream Odds+15
Storm Odds-15
Over/Under166.5 (-112/-114)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday via DraftKings

Injuries & News

Chennedy Carter (16.1 PPG) is now back with Atlanta after missing almost a month with an elbow injury. Unfortunately, just before Carter made her return, Tiffany Hayes (17.6 PPG) suffered an MCL tear, keeping her sidelined for four to six weeks.

Seattle’s Mikiah Herbert Harrigan will not play for the remainder of the season as she’s expecting a child.

Atlanta's Shooting is Inconsistent

My model was particularly bullish on the over as it projects close to 85 possessions for each team in the contest. Atlanta also allows the most 3-pointers per game (9.4 per game) in the league, while the Storm average 9.1 per game.

In fact, earlier this season, both teams faced one another twice in three days, and on both occasions, Seattle hit double-digits in 3-point field goals after shooting 12-of-22 (54.5%) and 10-of-21 (47.6%). The only problem was that Atlanta averaged only 3.5 3-pointers in both games, and that's half their season average of seven per game.

That's primarily the reason why both games went under.

The total actually closed higher for the second game (171.5) despite failing to go over the first game's closing number of 170.5.

In two of Atlanta's last three games, it finished with three and four field goals from behind the arc. And in one of their last five games, they made 13 3-pointers.

Those numbers are a bit too streaky for my liking, and even though the total is a bit lower than in the previous two games, I don't think I could pull the trigger in this spot.

Pick: Pass

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Aces at Sparks Odds

Aces Odds-15
Sparks Odds+15
Over/Under168 (-112/-114)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday via DraftKings

Injuries & News

Angel McCoughtry is the only player listed on the Aces’ injury report — she suffered a torn ACL right before the start of the season in a preseason scrimmage.

Los Angeles has ruled out Nneka Ogwumike (16.4 PPG), Chiney Ogwumike (9.0 PPG), Kristi Toliver (9.8 PPG), and Jasmine Walker for Friday.

Injuries Will Hinder Shorthanded LA

This is another game that will be a rematch for both teams after facing one another on Wednesday. It was pretty much a one-way affair for the Aces as they finished just one point shy of the century mark with a 99-75 victory over the Sparks.

Los Angeles is really banged up now, and they'll be without over 35 points of offense between the Ogwumike sisters and Tolliver. I don't see how the Sparks can make that up with what's left of their roster. Los Angeles even had to sign Lauren Cox less than 48 hours after the Fever waived her to fill out its bench.

While I would still play the Aces at -14.5, I think this is a good spot to use them as the second leg of my teaser to bring the number down to 10.

Pick: Two-team 4.5-point teaser (+103): Sky-Wings over 160 with Aces -10

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