WNBA Picks: Odds, Best Bets for Liberty vs Storm (Sunday, July 2)
Via Jordan Johnson/Getty Images. Pictured: ewell Loyd #24 of the Seattle Storm shoots a free throw during the game against the Minnesota Lynx on June 27, 2023 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The WNBA and a full slate of awesome Sunday games–name a more iconic duo, I dare you!
This Sunday's slate features the Mystics trying to survive without their best player and her frontcourt partner; the Dream looking to take advantage of a short-handed Sparks side; the Sky in their first game without James Wade; and Stewie headed back to Seattle.
For bettors, there are angles galore, including an almost overwhelming amount of potential plays based on usage bumps, new coaching and matchup edges. Let's dive right in.
WNBA Odds & Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
|Mystics vs. Wings||3 p.m. ET|
|Sparks vs. Dream||3 p.m. ET|
|Sky vs. Fever||4 p.m. ET|
|Liberty vs. Storm||6 p.m. ET|
Mystics vs. Wings Odds
I went very in-depth on this game in my preview of it, so I will keep it brief here so we can get to all the other best bets.
With Shakira Austin and Elena Delle Donne out for Washington, someone is going to get a big jump in looks, and Brittney Sykes is the leader in Usage Rate in the rare minutes both Austin and EDD have been out this season. Her points prop is sitting at 12.5 (-117), and the over is my favorite bet for this game.
Sparks vs. Dream Odds
The Sparks are absolutely decimated by injuries right now.
Chiney Ogwumike, Layshia Clarendon and Nia Clouden are all out, with Jordin Canada questionable. Canada's absence would be a massive blow because the most notable injury for the Sparks is one I did not just list: Lexie Brown.
The Sparks offense goes from quite solid (105.2 pts/100 possessions) with Brown on the court this season to just downright dreadful (93.5 pts/100 possessions) without her.
The impact for Canada isn't quite that same 12-point gap, but it's also notable–a nine-point dropoff with Canada. These are the Sparks' two most important guards, so if Canada is officially ruled out, I will be betting this game in several different ways.
I'll be taking the Dream -4.5 (hope you followed in the app and got -2!), but my main bet will be a Sparks team total under. I actually liked it at 81.5 (-120) before the Canada news regardless, but if she is officially ruled out, it will be an absolute hammer spot with lots of wiggle room.
Bet: Sparks Team Total Under 81.5
Sky vs. Fever Odds
The Sky play their first game in the post-James Wade Era on Sunday, and it's a road game against one of the fun, young teams in the W.
These two teams are very evenly matched in terms of their actual production in 2023, so a lot of betting this game comes down to whether you think this team will get that new-coach boost in the first game under interim head coach Emre Vatansever (who is also now interim general manager).
Sometimes a new-coach bounce can be a real thing if the vibes were previously terrible, and that's what led to the coach exiting. In this case, however, it was the result of Wade leaving on his own terms to take a job of his choosing, so I'm leaning the other way.
While it may not have been a total blindside to the organization, it definitely isn't a case of the vibes maybe improving after Wade leaves town. Consequently, I am looking to the Fever to grab their sixth win of the season, and will be betting them on the spread at -2.5.
Liberty vs. Storm Odds
In the final game of the night, Breanna Stewart and the heavily favored Liberty travel to Stewie's old home for the second time since her departure from the Storm.
However, I'm going to the other side of the court for my best bet. Jewell Loyd has had an amazing season so far, leading the league in points per game and at times entirely carrying the offense for this Storm side. But her 3s made prop is being inflated by a few outlier games.
Her 3s made prop is sitting at 3.5, but she has cleared that total in only four games this season. Those happened in an overtime game in which she tallied over 40 minutes against the worst 3-point defense in the W and then three games in which she took at least 12 3s.
The Liberty only allow opposing teams to take 20.6 3s a game, so while not impossible, it's hard to imagine them letting Loyd get up a dozen shots from deep.
New York's 3-point defense in general is excellent and held Loyd to just 2-0f-7 from deep last time the two met–and those were near-season lows in both attempts and makes.
This line is already juiced, so there's a chance it moves to 2.5 rather quickly, so at that number, I'd take it at plus money. However, once it moves into the -115 or so range, I would start to sit it out.