Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2466 Posts
Sean Koerner
2466 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.2K
Followers
464.2K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
2-WAY PARLAY+272
0.4u
Felt like this was perfect to log as a 2-pack as they have Atkins at 2.5 and Fam at 6. Obviously fine with Atkins juiced up at -134 at DK and Fam under 5.5 +115 at DK as individual plays. That goes for all of my plays really. This is simply a reminder that all of my plays can be parlayed/used at PrizePicks and/or my parlays/PrizePicks can always be used as individual plays. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
18
5
Pending
T.Melton o5.5 Ks-111
DET
DET Team Abbreviation@LAA Team Abbreviation
LAA
0.56u
07/18 1:38 AM
Melton had just a 14.5% adjusted K rate over his first 4 starts this season, but that has jumped to 27%(!!) over his last 4. His velocity is up, he tweaked his pitch mix in what I think is a more optimal direction, and the underlying metrics have exploded. His slider has been especially nasty with a mouth-watering 60% whiff rate over that stretch. I want to buy in on Melton before the market fully catches up. Obviously the Angels are one of the better strikeout matchups in baseball, but the bigger edge here is the lineup construction. Melton has shown a pretty extreme platoon split so far in his career with roughly an 8% higher K rate against right-handed hitters. Teams have wisely stacked lefties against him, with 61% of the batters he’s faced batting left-handed, but the Angels could send as many as 7 righties to the plate tonight. Trying to figure out exactly where to project Melton’s true talent K rate right now is the equivalent of trying to stay on a mechanical bull after a few beers. I feel like I’m being pretty conservative using a 22.5% expected K rate, and even that gets me to around -160 for Over 5.5 Ks. If this jump in velocity, pitch mix and underlying metrics proves to be real, I could easily see him settling in at a 24%+ strikeout rate going forward, which would make this line closer to -200. I think it makes sense to ladder him up a few rungs as well.
176
17
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
44
20
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
55
20
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days6-7-046%
0.13u
Last 30 Days48-55-146%
2.88u
All Time2286-1894-3954%
245.67u
Top Leagues
NFL1225-970-2055%
141.31u
MLB379-336-752%
44.76u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA206-170-554%
25.88u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
Golf9-19-032%
0.08u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.