NFL Week 11 Odds & Picks: Expert Makes Bet on Raiders vs Broncos
Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson (No. 3).
NFL Odds & Predictions
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Sean Koerner: The Commanders are coming off a Monday night win over the Eagles on the road. It was a truly great performance, and they deserved to win the game.
However, Washington is due for a letdown spot here against the Texans. Houston lost last week to the Giants 24-16, but according to our expected score metric that helps fuel our Luck Rankings, it was a game they actually deserved to win. Not only did the Texans out-gain the Giants by 30 yards, but they made it into the red zone four times in the fourth quarter without scoring a touchdown. Houston committed two turnovers and settled for a field-goal attempt on the other two.
The Texans offense played a lot better than their 16-point output would indicate, and I think they are a sneaky team to buy low on here.
Washington’s defense has been excellent at generating pressure and they rank third in pressure rate. However, Davis Mills has been surprisingly good when facing pressure this season. He ranks sixth in success rate and sixth in QB Rating (out of 36 qualified QBs) when facing pressure this season, so he may fare better than people expect against Washington’s high-pressure rate.
The Commanders shouldn’t be 3-point road favorites against anyone right now, not even over the Texans.
Pick: Texans +3 |
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Sean Koerner: Another week where I’m on the Lions getting the key number of three, and it’s against the luckiest team (according to our Luck Rankings) in all of football, the New York Giants.
As I mentioned in my Texans +3 play, the Giants were lucky to pull off the win against Houston last week. They were out-gained by 30 yards and somehow only allowed six total points on four Texans red-zone drives in the fourth quarter.
The Lions are 3-6 while the Giants are 7-2, but these teams are a lot closer than people realize. A lot of that has to do with the Lions' 2-4 record in one-score games compared to the Giants at 7-1. One-score game luck can skew how we perceive teams and that is certainly the case here. Plus, the Giants have also benefited from having the third-easiest schedule to date, while the Lions have had the fifth-toughest.
The Lions are getting back WR D.J. Chark, who is their top vertical threat and adds an explosive element to their offense, while the Giants could be without arguably their top WR in Wan’Dale Robinson, who is dealing with a hamstring injury.
I like the Lions getting the key number of 3 once again this week.
Pick: Lions +3 |
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Sean Koerner: Heading into the season, this matchup would have been viewed as a potential shootout. However, it should be anything but that given the current state of these two offenses.
The Broncos have averaged the fewest points per drive (1.25), while allowing the fewest points per drive (1.35), which is music to an under bettor’s ears.
Wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler have been ruled out, which is a big hit to Denver's offense. The Broncos offensive line has now lost three starters in Garrett Bolles, Lloyd Cushenberry and Billy Turner. Right tackle Tom Compton has missed the first 10 weeks due to a back injury but is expected to make his season debut despite only practicing on a limited basis this week. There is a chance he’s suiting up at less than 100%, but the Broncos are desperate for a lineman right now.
This is an offense that seems ill equipped to take advantage of the Raiders' 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA.
The Raiders are without two of their top pass catchers in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, but now Davante Adams' status is up in the air with an abdomen injury. It’s going to be very tough for them to move the ball through the air against a Broncos defense that ranks third in DVOA, so they will likely lean on Josh Jacobs and the running game here.
This should be a slow-paced, run-heavy, low-scoring environment that sets up nicely for the under. I like getting this at 41.5 since 41 is a key number when it comes to totals.
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