NFL Player Props for Week 11: Expert Picks for Melvin Gordon, Hayden Hurst

RB Miles Sanders, Eagles
Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-125, BetMGM)

Sanders failed to clear this number for only the third time this season last week, but a lot of that had to do with Washington dominating time of possession in its upset win.

I think the Eagles lean on Sanders more, especially after losing such a valuable passing piece in Dallas Goedert. The Colts rank fifth in DVOA against the run, so I’m not as interested in taking Sanders to clear his yardage prop, but I think the volume will be there.

I’m projecting him closer to 15 attempts, but would only take this prop at 13.5 and bet it up to -145.

WR Quez Watkins, Eagles
Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (+100, DraftKings)

Watkins always carries a wide range of outcomes.

Despite playing in all nine games thus far, he has five games with no yards but two with at least 69. He is a deep threat who only sees a target on 6% of his routes run, and while he could see an increase in usage with Goedert out, I think the ball will get spread out fairly evenly among Philly's pass-catchers.

Plus, he tends to struggle against zone. Last season, he had a 2.55 Y/RR vs man and 1.25 vs zone — he’s been equally as bad across all types of coverages this year — so he could struggle even more against a Colts team that uses zone at the seventh highest rate.

As is always the case when taking the under on Watkins, this could look silly if he hauls in a deep ball. Still, I like investing on his floor and have his median closer to 17.5 yards.

WR Van Jefferson, Rams
Under 3.5 Receptions (-110, BetMGM)

Jefferson will see an increase in usage with Cooper Kupp on the shelf, but I think we also see Allen Robinson , Ben Skowronek, Tyler Higbee and even rookie running back Kyren Williams pick up extra targets.

Jefferson has seen his playing time drop since returning in Week 8, so it’s fair to wonder if his conditioning isn’t quite there yet for a true full-time role. Plus, he profiles more as a deep threat in this offense right now with an average depth of target (aDot) of 20.8.

The Saints have allowed just a 25% completion rate to receivers 20-plus yards downfield (sixth lowest). I’m projecting Jefferson closer to three receptions and would bet this down to -130.

RB Michael Carter, Jets
Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (-118, FanDuel)

James Robinson managed to out-rush Carter 13-12 against the Bills. It was Robinson’s first game after a full week of practice, so his role (on early downs) could expand after the Jets' bye week.

I still expect Carter to dominate the passing-down work, but I like the value on his prop here in what should be a trailing game script. I’m projecting him closer to nine carries and would bet down to -135.

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers
Over 2.5 Receptions (-120, DraftKings)

Marshall has a 95%-plus routes run rate since Week 7 so I think his over here is sneaky in what should be a pass-heavy game script for the Panthers.

Baker Mayfield and DJ Moore have lacked chemistry this year, but Marshall has connected on 5-of-7 targets from Mayfield so he probably gets the biggest boost with the quarterback switch.

Marshall has only caught 56% of his targets but I expect him to have closer to a 60% catch rate going forward based on his 11.0 aDot (and Mayfield under center). I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions and would bet this up to -135.

RB Melvin Gordon, Broncos
Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)

Despite being a part of a 2-3-way RBBC, Gordon has maintained dominance in passing-down work and in the two-minute offense.

Denver will be without Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and their offensive line has also been decimated by injuries, so dumpoffs to Gordon could be used as an extension of the run game, especially against a L.V. defense that ranks last in DVOA against RBs in the passing game.

I'm projecting this closer to 14.5 yards.

TE Hayden Hurst, Bengals
Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120, BetMGM)

This number is a tad high for a few reasons.

1) The Steelers have been good against TEs this year, ranking 4th in DVOA.

2) With Joe Mixon and the run game finally clicking before the bye, Cincy should be a bit more balanced.

3) Hurst has a ridiculous 84% catch rate and is due for some regression — I expect him to be closer to the 72-75% range going forward. He also sees a lot of targets underneath and has only averaged 8.0 yards per catch as a result.

Hurst could grab 4-5 balls and still fall short of this. I’m projecting this closer to 34.5 yards.