Deebo Samuel Player Props: Expert Pick for 49ers vs Cardinals

Deebo Samuel Receptions

Deebo Samuel’s target share has taken a notable hit since the 49ers acquired Christian McCaffrey. Before the arrival of CMC, Samuel was seeing a target on 26% of his routes – that number has plummeted to 15% since.

Given that CMC is an elite pass-catching back, something the 49ers’ offense has lacked, this dip for Samuel makes sense. He’ll still get the ball in his hands, but probably through rush attempts (around 3-5 of them).

San Francisco also enters this game as 10-point favorites against a Cardinals team led by Colt McCoy – that figures to lead a run-heavy approach.

Also working against Samuel here is the fact that the Cardinals rank in the top 10 in DVOA against Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers. However, they rank in the bottom three against running backs and tight ends, meaning increased targets for CMC and George Kittle.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in this 49ers offense and there are only so many completions to go around. I’m projecting Samuel closer to 4.1 receptions and a 60% chance he stays under 4.5 — getting this at even money is a nice bonus.