Sean Koerner

Jones is having an MVP-type season on his new team, but last week was his first real flop, throwing 3 picks in a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. I expect him to bounce back here, which should let the Colts lean more on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, helping this prop. The Falcons blitz at the highest rate in the league (46%), and Jones’ completion rate drops from 76% against 4 or fewer rushers to 55% against the blitz, so we should see more incompletions from him here. The Falcons have also allowed the fewest completions per game (16.5) and have yet to allow a QB to complete 21+ passes this season. This will be just Jones’ 3rd outdoor game of the year, and with this one being played in Germany where it should be fairly chilly, his expected completion rate should dip a bit compared to if this were played in a dome environment in Indy or Atlanta. I’m projecting him closer to 20.4 completions with around a 59% chance to stay under 21.5. People hate betting unders because they feel like there’s nothing to root for. That’s not really true. Here, we’re rooting for Jonathan Taylor to have a big game on the ground, Jones scrambles, quick TD drives, and long, clock-killing possessions from Atlanta. The people who think this is just about sitting there puckered up every time Jones drops back rooting for an incompletion are making it miserable on themselves lol. Early completions are fine too if they help the Colts build a lead and lean on the run later.

Allen has only cleared this number in 3 of 8 games, and this sets up as another spot where I’m not expecting him to lean on his legs much. The Bills should be able to build a comfortable lead and lean on James Cook and the run game, keeping Allen from taking unnecessary hits in what looks like a low-leverage matchup. He’s usually good for one designed run, and there’s always the risk of 1–2 kneel-downs at the end (the main threat to this prop). But as we’ve seen the past couple seasons, when the Bills are up big, they’re quick to hand garbage time to Mitch Trubisky, who often takes those kneels instead. I’m also projecting a lower scramble rate than his 9.4% season mark. He’s scrambled on just 3.7% of dropbacks vs Cover 2 (Miami plays it a league-high 30% of the time) and only 3.6% vs the blitz (the Dolphins blitz at the 4th-highest rate). Combine that with Miami’s weakened pass rush (Jaelan Phillips was traded (their top pass rusher), Chop Robinson is doubtful, and Matthew Judon (likely has to step up in Chop’s place) has posted a career-low 6.1% pressure rate) and Allen should have one of his cleaner pockets of the year. That setup limits how often he’ll need to take off and run. I’m projecting him around 5.8 rush attempts with about a 63% chance to stay under 6.5.

Caleb has cleared 280+ passing yards in back-to-back games, so I think his market is a bit inflated here because of it. This is a matchup against the Giants, who are more of a run funnel, where I expect Chicago to lean on the run more.. especially with Kyle Monangai looking great last week in his first start. I’m simply expecting his volume to be down in this spot. This was a prop I had circled to dig into during my Fri/Sat projection sweep, but with the weather forecast looking ugly and both Odunze and Moore banged up and limited in practice, I wanted to lock it in early at this number. I’m projecting him closer to 220 yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 232.5. A lot can change before kickoff, but most of that uncertainty points toward this line dropping once I run my full process later in the week.

Proj closer to 24.5 with Tet expected to play now Edit: should say u31.5

Taylor has cleared this in back-to-back games and was the clear No. 1 target with 13 targets over that stretch, but that was also with Garrett Wilson out. With Wilson expected to return this week, Taylor should slide back to being the No. 2 target. This is also a game where I expect the Jets to lean on the run more. As 1.5-point underdogs, they’re projected to trail at a 31% lower rate than their season average, meaning they should be able to lean on the run at a higher rate here. It’s also a much tougher matchup for Taylor. The Browns use man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and his yards per route run drops from 1.12 vs zone to just 0.47 vs man. They run Cover 1 on a league-high 35% of snaps, and Taylor has a brutal -0.03 yards per route run across 30 routes against it. The Browns aren’t going to let him sit down in open zones like he’s been able to for a lot of his targets and he’ll likely have a defender glued to him on most routes, and that usually leads to Fields either finding another option or taking off to run. The Jets also just added AD Mitchell and John Metchie III, who could chip away at his target share as they get more involved. I’m projecting him closer to 24 yards with about a 64% chance to stay under 29.5

The Patriots WR room is a bit tricky to project with Kayshon Boutte out, but last week we saw rookie Kyle Williams essentially take over Boutte’s role one-for-one. Demario Douglas has also been playing too well to keep his routes run rate capped around 30–40%, so I expect his playing time to climb as well. All of that movement likely leaves Hollins around a 55-60% routes run rate (maybe lower) and I think the market is overrating how much Boutte’s absence helps him. Any additional snaps for Douglas should either cut into Hollins’ playing time or his target share (Douglas has commanded a way higher target rate than Boutte). He’s also been running a bit lucky on efficiency, catching 87% of his targets despite a 10-yard average depth of target. His expected catch rate is closer to 67%, so he’s due for some regression the market isn’t pricing in. I’m projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions, with roughly a 60% chance to stay under 2.5.

Starks has played well in his rookie season, averaging 6.1 tackles per game and clearing this number in 4 of 8 games. However, he’s gone under in three straight since the Ravens traded for Alohi Gilman, which has shifted Starks’ role. Since that move, his box alignment rate is down about 4%, while Kyle Hamilton has lined up in the box at a career-high rate over that same stretch..lining up in the box at a 50%+ rate in 3 straight games, a career high. That shift alone eats into Starks’ tackle chances. He’s also more dependent on tackle opportunities from completed passes as a result (since the shift in usage with Gilman in the mix, his tackle rate on rush attempts has plummeted), and the Ravens have faced 24.8 completions per game this year. But JJ McCarthy’s completion prop is just 19.5, so we could see around 5 fewer tackle chances through the air, which directly hurts Starks’ expected output. On top of that, the Vikings have been the single worst team in the league in terms of providing tackle opportunities to opposing safeties. Starks has had a pretty soft schedule for safeties so far, and this will be his toughest matchup yet..just the third team he’s faced that ranks below average in tackle opportunities for his position. I’m projecting him closer to 4.8 tackles, with around a 64% chance to stay under 5.5.

Projecting this closer to 17.5 with around a 60% chance he stays under 18.5