Here's my Alvarez vs Mbilli prediction and best bet for Saturday, October 31 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
This fight should not be happening — let's start there.
Saudi Arabia is at war with Yemen and the Houthis continue to attack various areas of Riyadh, where this fight will be taking place, affecting civilians. Seemingly every other organization not affiliated with TKO has canceled or postponed their Saudi-based events amid the ongoing attacks.
And even though this card, titled "Mexico vs. The World," is taking place in Riyadh. Not California, not Texas, not Arizona, not Nevada, not New York, not Illinois, or not — you know — Mexico! Yes, this is still happening — even though the broadcast may apparently take place remotely in London.
Did you know Canelo Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 Knockouts) is fighting in Riyadh for the second time in three fights over the course of 17 months? The Guadalajara-born and proud Mexican star has fought one time in Mexico in the last 15 years. I wonder why that is the case.
Alvarez will be appearing in his first fight since losing a wide unanimous decision to Terence Crawford last September, and is challenging WBC Super Middleweight Champion Christian Mbilli
But let's preview this matchup featuring Alvarez and Mbilli, since there's an actual interesting fight amid all of this tone-deafness.
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Prediction
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Odds, Preview
- Moneyline: Alvarez (+240), Mbilli (-290)
- Total Rounds: O/U 11.5 Rounds (-370o / +250u)
Canelo Alvarez Betting Preview
Alvarez hasn't knocked anyone out since November of 2021 — that was nine fights ago. Yugoslavia still existed when he was born. When he turned pro at 15, the No. 1 song in the world was "Gold Digger," and he has boxed more professional rounds, 532, than Joel Embiid has played NBA regular-season games, 494.
He should be washed. He didn't look completely washed against Crawford, but he did look overmatched. To be fair, Crawford was arguably the pound-for-pound No. 1 boxer in the sport, even though he was coming off a difficult decision win against Israil Madrimov the year prior and moving up two weight classes.
Since losing to Dmitry Bivol in 2022, Alvarez has mostly dominated lukewarm, overmatched competition before running into Crawford. So it's difficult to tell how much he has left. He's never been dropped, but this is his 69th professional fight. He's 16 pro rounds away from Muhammad Ali's career total, and he fought in the 15-round era.
He's clearly still good, but he's also clearly past his prime, and to me, he's been past it for four years. There just hasn't been enough quality opposition in his weight class, outside of David Benavidez when he was at super middleweight, but Alvarez ducked him, and Osleys Iglesias is up there now, but doesn't have the name recognition of a typical Alvarez opponent.
Christian Mbilli Betting Preview
Christian Mbilli is good enough to have a firefight with Lester Martinez in his last bout, which ended in a debatable draw, and while he's defensively reckless, he's the biggest puncher opposite of Alvarez that we've seen since at least the Jaime Munguia-Edwin Berlanga run, if not longer.
Does Alvarez have the same defensive reflexes as he once did? No. But it didn't matter against Berlanga and Munguia. Does Mbilli have enough to separate himself?
Unlike Munguia, Mbilli is a natural super middleweight. Munguia was initially competing at 140 pounds, whereas Mbilli has been at this weight since his debut in 2017. And Berlanga is quite famously — in boxing circles — known for his popularity greatly outweighing his talent.
The question for Mbilli is this: Can he actually overwhelm Alvarez with his offense? Or is his defense sufficient enough to frustrate Alvarez to the degree others have?
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Picks, Best Bets
The promotion is Canelo-centric. He never loses on the cards unless he gets whooped by an elite fighter. His three losses were to Floyd Mayweather, Bivol and Crawford, and he got more respect than he deserved on each of the cards for what were ultimately one-sided losses. You can credibly argue that he lost to Golovkin at least once, as well as Erislandy Lara in 2014.
To his credit, he has only lost to elite pound-for-pound talents, and even the debatable defeats were against great boxers of his era. Not the Mbilli's of the world, not yet anyway. The safe pick is Canelo by decision. It's how he tends to win nowadays, and barring a complete fall-off — and hell, even with one — this is the most likely outcome.
Pick: Canelo Alvarez By Decision (-140, DraftKings) — .25 Units
But if you do want to bet that, this is it.
That Alvarez, in fight No. 69, in his 21st year as a pro, and 13 months removed from the ring in — again — a reckless situation overseas, of which we don't know how they'll actually impact the event as it is going on, then Mbilli is worth a sprinkle. Alvarez could fall off any moment now.
Not simply lose to another elite like Crawford, but actually lose to what you'd consider below his level.
I question if Mbilli has what it takes to beat Alvarez, but a moneyline sprinkle could be worth it for you, even if it's live after the first couple of rounds.
Longshot Hedges
- Sprinkle Mbilli Moneyline (+240)
