Who is favored to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list One Battle After Another as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Picture at 75%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Picture race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
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Best Picture Odds
One Battle After Another is the betting favorite to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars at 75%.
Next up on the odds board is Sinners at 22% to win Best Picture.
There are two long-shots above 1% to win Best Picture, but they're still significant underdogs, as Hamnet is 3% and Marty Supreme is 2% to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars.
The other nominees at 1% include Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Best Picture Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: Until the last week or so, it seemed a foregone conclusion that One Battle After Another would leave the Dolby Theater on Sunday night with the Oscar statuette.
It's still very much expected to do so, but there's certainly some momentum behind Sinners that's risen up just over the last two or so weeks.
Of the major precursor awards shows, the best predictors of Best Picture success are the PGA (Producers Guild Awards) and DGA (Directors Guild Awards). The PGA's top prize has gone to 17 of the last 25 Best Picture winners, while the DGA is 16-for-25.
That includes just last year, when those were the only two major precursor awards to pick Anora, the ultimate Best Picture winner.
Indeed, One Battle After Another won the top prize at both the PGA and DGA. It also won the top prize at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, the latter in a separate category from Sinners (Drama vs. Musical/Comedy) and Sinners lost out to Hamnet that night in its Best Picture category.
The only precursor award Sinners has won was also the most recent one. Sinners took home the top prize from the Screen Actors Guild (the newly named Actor Awards).
There's precedent here, but it's few and far between. Since 2000, there have been three instances where a Best Picture winner's only precursor win came from the SAG: 2019 (Parasite), 2015 (Spotlight), and 2005 (Crash).
Even if you were taking the math of those last 25 years at face value, which you absolutely should not do, that says that Sinners wins Best Picture 13% of the time, making the 23-26% range the market is implying terrible value.
The experts and editors at Gold Derby are buying into the hype too, however, and they have a fairly strong track record. As of this writing, 20% of them are picking Sinners to win Best Picture.
All of this is to say that I still expect One Battle After Another to win Best Picture on Sunday night, but there's enough smoke around Sinners to keep an eye on the number. I have a position on Sinners from a few weeks ago at +400 that I'm sitting on, and I'd probably need around that number or better to justify a bet right now.
Best Bet: Sinners (+400 or better)
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2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Casting Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
