Best Original Screenplay Odds | Oscar Predictions, Favorites, 2026 Academy Awards Betting Guide

Collin Whitchurch

Cross-Platform Content Manager

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Updated:

Mar 15, 2026, 06:06 AM EDT

Updated:

Mar 15, 2026, 06:06 AM EDT

Best Original Screenplay Odds | Oscar Predictions, Favorites, 2026 Academy Awards Betting Guide article feature image

4 min read

Credit:

Taya Gray, Special to The Desert Sun. Pictured: Sinners writer and director Ryan Coogler, left.

Who is favored to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Sinners as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay at 47%.

The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.

Here's everything you need to know about the Best Original Screenplay race at the 2026 Academy Awards.

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Best Original Screenplay Odds

Sinners is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars at 97%.

Next up on the odds board behind Sinners is Marty Supreme at 3%, and that's followed by Sentimental Value at 2%.

Every film other than Sinners is a long-shot in this category, but bringing up the rear are It Was Just an Accident and Blue Moon, which are both at 1% to win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars.

Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: Sinners is an extreme favorite here and it’s easy to understand why.

Sinners has won virtually every single precursor award it’s been up for, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, WGA, and NBR.

The one place it didn’t win, notably, was at the Golden Globes. However, it was up against One Battle After Another, which it won’t compete against here.

The early season favorite in this category was Sentimental Value so that’s tracking second here, but we don’t need to overthink this one.

It’s also worth noting that this is Ryan Coogler’s best chance to win his first Academy Award, which the Academy is wont to do. Jordan Peele became the first Black winner of a screenplay Oscar for Get Out nearly a decade ago. Coogler is likely to be the second.

Best Bet: None (Sinners will win)

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2026 Oscars FAQ

When are the 2026 Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.

Where are the 2026 Oscars held?

The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.

Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.

Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?

The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.

Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.

Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?

One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.

Who won at the 2025 Oscars?

Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."

More 2026 Oscars Coverage

About the Author

Collin Whitchurch is the manager of cross-platform content at Action Network, working directly with on-air talent, editors, and producers on efficient prioritization of coverage across the editorial, video, and audio mediums. Prior to his current role, Collin was the senior MLB editor at Action, managing the day-to-day content produced about baseball.

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