Who is favored to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Actor at 92%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Actor race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
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Best Actor Odds
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is the betting favorite to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars at 48%.
Next up on the odds board is Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) at 37% to win Best Actor.
The other three nominees for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars are long-shots. That includes Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon).
Best Actor Predictions
Chris Raybon: I’m going with Timothee Chalamet here.
I think Michael B. Jordan was a great bet here all the way up until the Screen Actors Guild, where he won and became the favorite. But I still think Chalamet was better, and I think we’re getting great value here after the odds flip.
Depending on how you manage your bankroll, and with prediction markets offering ‘No’ options, you could also look into betting Chalamet to win vs. betting ‘No’ on Jordan to win Best Actor, which also shows value according to Gold Derby’s experts and editors.
Ultimately, this came down to betting the underdog, which became Chalamet over the last two weeks. Anything plus money is a good bet because I think he’s the clear favorite.
Bet: Timothee Chalamet (Anything Plus Money)
Collin Whitchurch: Crazy things can happen in the last couple of weeks leading up to the Academy Awards, and that’s certainly what we have seen in the Best Actor race.
You might recall that a year ago, young star Timothee Chalamet seemed headed for his first Best Actor prize for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown.
Only it didn’t happen. Locked in a tight race with previous Best Actor winner Adrien Brody, the veteran emerged victorious, and Chalamet – who seems to really, really care about these kind of things – would have to wait another year.
Enter this year and enter another awards season where Chalamet was the favorite, an even stronger favorite than he was a year ago. The only real challenger, it seemed in the fall, was Leonardo DiCaprio, but buzz for his performance in One Battle After Another faded to the background amid the praise for the supporting characters.
It seemed like the Oscar was Chalamet’s. He peaked around -350 to win Best Actor in January. He won several precursors. We were all headed to an Oscar night where Chalamet was kinged as The Next Big Thing. The Best Actor version of Emma Stone in Best Actress.
And yet, here we are with less than a week until showtime and Chalemet suddenly finds himself with a plus in front of his odds.
What happened?
Well, first came the BAFTAs, where Chalamet lost out to a British actor (Robert Amarayo) who isn’t even nominated at the Academy Awards. No big deal there, for the most part, as Amarayo couldn’t beat Chalamet on Oscar night, and the BAFTAs are known at times to award its own over the bigger-name Hollywood favorites.
Next came the Actor Awards. In addition to Sinners winning Best Ensemble, we saw a shocker in Best Actor, which went to Michael B. Jordan over Chalamet.
OK, the Actor Awards are the last precursor ceremony. So that’s it, right?
Haha.
Chalamet appeared at a CNN & Variety Town Hall event in late February, where he said in a conversation with Matthew McConaughey that he didn’t want movie theaters to go the way of “ballet or opera,” where artists want to “keep this thing alive” even though “no one cares” about it anymore.
Boy, did that piss people off.
It’s worth noting that Chalamet’s appearance and the blowback all happened about a week before voting closed for the 2026 Academy Awards.
So here we are, with Jordan now favored at around -170 to -200 and Chalamet now an underdog at +170 to +220.
What’s extra interesting here is that while the experts and editors at Gold Derby agree with Jordan flipping with Chalamet, Jordan is still overvalued here as he is picked just around 52% of the time.
That’s because of the presence of Wagner Moura, this year’s Fernanda Torres/Sandra Huller as the non-English language nominee (for The Secret Agent) people see as a stealthy live underdog. More than 10% at Gold Derby have Moura winning this prize.
So, how do we bet this?
I have early positions on both Jordan (at +132) and Moura (at +1900) that I’m going to ride to showtime. My hunch is that Chalamet still has a better chance of winning than his odds imply, but I’d probably need north of +200 to show value there. For Jordan, I’d want at least +100 to bet him, while you’d want to get Moura at around +1350 for there to be any real value.
If you have to make only one pick, I think the best value is on Chalamet. There’s been a lot of noise of late, but we’ll find out Sunday night if there was any validity to it or not.
Best Bets: Michael B. Jordan (+100 or better) | Timothee Chalamet (+200 or better) | Wagner Moura (+1350 or better)
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2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Casting Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
