Who is favored to win Best Casting at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Sinners as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Casting at 73%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Casting race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
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Best Casting Odds
Sinners is favored to win Best Casting at the 2026 Oscars at 73%.
Next up on the odds board behind Sinners is One Battle After Another, which is at 6%. That's followed by The Secret Agent at 5%.
The long-shot nominee to win Best Casting at the 2026 Oscars is Hamnet, which is at 2% odds.
Best Casting Predictions
Chris Raybon: This is a pure math play on a heavy favorite.
Gold Derby has Sinners winning this category around 90% of the time, so it should really be close to like -900.
The caveat here is, of course, that this is the first year of the Best Casting category, so nobody, including the experts and editors at Gold Derby, have anything to go off of other than what we’ve seen in the precursor awards.
I’ll go with that math, and the fact that you can get Sinners in the -300 to -400 range makes it worth a bet.
Bet: Sinners -400
Collin Whitchurch: This is the first year the Academy will hand out an Oscar for Best Casting, which throws a little bit of a wrinkle into the process. There’s simply no history with which we can base our projections.
Still, there are precursor ceremonies that award Best Casting, and all signs point to Sinners. The only major precursor ceremony that did not give its top prize to Sinners was the BAFTAs, which awarded I Swear, a film not in competition here.
All told, I have Sinners winning this close to 90% of the time. It’s not the sexiest bet in the world compared to some of the plus-money value plays in other categories, but I would bet this down to around -550.
Best Bet: Sinners (-550 or better)
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2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
