Who is favored to win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at 68%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Supporting Actor race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about the Academy Awards, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Best Supporting Actor Odds
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is the betting favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars at 68%.
Next up on the odds board is Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) at 20% to win Best Supporting Actor, followed by Delroy Lindo (Sinners) at 12%.
Long-shot nominees to win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars include Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein).
Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Chris Raybon: This has seemed like a three-man race with Sean Penn as the favorite, Stellan Skarsgard right behind him and Delroy Lindo as the dark horse.
Penn was obviously fantastic in One Battle After Another, but Skarsgard, I think, has a real shot here. If you look at his screen time in Sentimental Value, he was almost like a main character, like he could’ve been competing in the Best Actor race instead. So I think at +400 there’s some real value here.
Another way to attack this is to just bet ‘No’ on Penn at around +250. If you think this really is a three-man race and that Lindo, or maybe even one of the longer shots, has a chance in what seems to be a pretty wide-open race, getting slightly less juice on the ‘No’ on Penn instead of just betting Skarsgard covers you on that angle.
Bets: Stellan Skarsgard +400 | Sean Penn 'No' +257
Collin Whitchurch: One exciting piece of Oscars history this year is that we’re very likely to see at least three first-time winners in the acting categories.
Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress make that a virtual lock. The one that might end up a repeat winner is Best Supporting Actor, where the favorite is Sean Penn, who has two Best Actor wins to his name (2004 for Mystic River and 2009 for Milk).
Fellow nominee and cast-mate Benicio Del Toro also has an Oscar win (2001 Best Supporting for Traffic), but he’s a long-shot to win at this point.
Shockingly, not only has 74-year-old nominee Stellan Skarsgard never won one, but this year’s nod for Sentimental Value is the first nomination of his illustrious career.
It sure seems like it’ll either be Penn or Skarsgard here in the week before the ceremony, with Delroy Lindo lurking as a super dark-horse if Sinners overperforms to an absurd degree on Sunday night.
As it stands, Penn is priced about right, with Gold Derby’s experts and editors picking him to win at a 66% clip. Skarsgard is at 24%, so there is a little value on him to pull off the upset if you can find around +375 or better.
For what it’s worth, both the SAG and BAFTAs awarded Penn, which is what jumped him to the front of the line in the first place. It’s not uncommon for the two awards shows to agree, but what’s super uncommon is for them to agree and for the Oscar to go in a different direction. Since 2000, it’s happened just once, when the SAG and BAFTAs both gave their Best Supporting Actor awards to Christopher Walker, only for the Academy to award Chris Cooper.
Best Bet: Stellan Skarsgard (+375 or better)
How to Bet the 2026 Oscars
If you're thinking of placing wagers on the Oscars, a new operator in the marketplace allows you to place money on the Oscars in most of the 50 U.S. states. Kalshi blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets. Learn more here.
Kalshi offers a variety of Oscars categories, including Best Picture and Best Actor, but also more niche markets such as "How many Oscars will 'Sinners' Win?"
Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.
2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Director Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Casting Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
