Who is favored to win Best Director at the 2026 Oscars? Current odds list Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) as the betting favorite to win the Academy Award for Best Director at 92%.
The Academy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. It will get started at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Here's everything you need to know about the Best Director race at the 2026 Academy Awards.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction about the Academy Awards, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to make predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Best Director Odds
One Battle After Another director Paul Thomas Anderson is the betting favorite to win Best Director at the 2026 Oscars at 92%.
Next up on the odds board is Ryan Coogler (Sinners) at 9% to win Best Director.
The other three nominees for Best Director at the 2026 Oscars are extreme long-shots. That includes Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme).
Best Director Predictions
Collin Whitchurch: Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 14 Academy Awards, with those nominations spread out among screenwriting, directing, and producing (Best Picture).
He's never won.
At 56, Anderson has spent the last 20 years transitioning from a young up-and-comer into a member of the "new" old guard. When he was nominated for There Will Be Blood two decades ago, ultimately losing both that and Best Picture to the Coen Brothers and There Will Be Blood, it was a signal that Anderson was no longer a scrappy newcomer but a mainstay, and indeed he's spent the time since garnering regular nominations, just not winning.
With One Battle After Another, Anderson is now the frontrunner, and even if Sinners were to upset his film for Best Picture, it has seemed clear throughout the months leading up to showtime that this was the year the Academy had collectively said "OK, it's your turn."
Coincidentally, this comes during a year where Anderson's top challenger, Ryan Coogler, is essentially where he was at all those years ago. At 39-year-old, Coogler already has five nominations to his name, with three coming this year.
Coogler is the up and comer and he'll get his flowers before long, but this is Anderson's year. The odds say as much, which is why there's no value here.
Best Bet: None (Paul Thomas Anderson is winning)
How to Bet the 2026 Oscars
If you're thinking of placing wagers on the Oscars, a new operator in the marketplace allows you to place money on the Oscars in most of the 50 U.S. states. Kalshi blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets. Learn more here.
Kalshi offers a variety of Oscars categories, including Best Picture and Best Actor, but also more niche markets such as "How many Oscars will 'Sinners' Win?"
Betting markets for the Oscars are also made available at sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel in select states, including Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana. It is also available in Ontario, Canada.
2026 Oscars FAQ
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for this Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
Where to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Who is hosting the 2026 Oscars?
The 2026 Oscars will be hosted by Conan O'Brien.
Who is nominated for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
The films nominated for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams.
Who is favored to win at the 2026 Oscars?
One Battle After Another is the favorite for Best Picture, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is the favorite for Best Director, Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is favored to win Best Actor, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) is favored to win Best Actress, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is favored to win Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) is favored to win Best Supporting Actress.
Who won at the 2025 Oscars?
Sean Baker's film "Anora" was the big winner at the 2025 Oscars. The film won Best Picture and had the most overall wins (5). It also won Best Director (Baker), Best Actress (Mikey Madison), Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his role in "The Brutalist," Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in "A Real Pain," and Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for her role in "Emilia Perez."
More 2026 Oscars Coverage
- Chris Raybon's 2025 Academy Awards Betting Card
- Collin Whitchurch's 2025 Oscars Best Bets & Predictions
- Best Picture Odds, Predictions
- Best Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actor Odds, Predictions
- Best Supporting Actress Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Adapted Screenplay Odds, Predictions
- Best Casting Odds, Predictions
- Best Costume Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling Odds, Predictions
- Best Production Design Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Song Odds, Predictions
- Best Visual Effects Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Cinematography Odds, Predictions
- Best International Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Film Editing Odds, Predictions
- Best Original Score Odds, Predictions
- Best Sound Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Feature Odds, Predictions
- Best Animated Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Documentary Short Odds, Predictions
- Best Live Action Short Odds, Predictions
